June 24, 2011

World's beef, veal output to increase 13% by 2020

According to the most recent OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook for 2011-20 forecasts, beef and veal production will rise 13% by 2020, with output of pigmeat, poultry meat and sheepmeat all determined to increase by at least 20% over the same time.

The OECD-FAO also stated that world meat production is projected to average an increase of 1.8% per annum over the outlook period. The increase in production is driven by a 78% rise in output from developing countries, with growth underpinned by the faster production cycles for both the poultry and pigmeat sectors.

World beef and veal production averaged 65.4 million tonnes cwt in 2008-10, with production through to 2020 poised to increase by 8.5 million tonnes, to 74.1 million tonnes. Output growth by 2020 is forecast to increase by 7% (31.8 million tonnes) in the developed world, with the major producing countries of the US (12.5 million tonnes) and Australia (2.6 million tonnes) increasing 9% and 12% respectively, on the 2008-10 average.

Production growth for developing countries is expected to increase by 19% by 2020, to 42.2 million tonnes, with Brazil (12%) and mainland China (15%) accounting for the largest proportion of output, at 10.2 million tonnes and 7.1 million tonnes cwt, respectively.

The main factor constraining meat production will be feed prices, which are expected to remain high throughout the forecast period. As a result of the high prices, the OECD-FAO report suggested that efficiency in the use of feed will be improved by technological advancements, a more strategic use of feed and an expansion of grass based production methods.

Pigmeat production is expected to increase 20% by 2020, to 127 million tonnes cwt, while poultry meat is forecast to surge 29% over the same period, to 122 million tonnes cwt. Sheepmeat output is predicted to total 16 million tonnes in 2020, up 22% on the average for 2008-10.