US soy crush seen lower in May

The US Census Bureau is expected to estimate the May soy crush at 133.2 million bushels, a moderate drop from the prior month.

The decline is due to seasonal down time in the industry with tight soy supplies for crushing translating into a smaller month-over-month crush pace, according to a survey of industry analysts.

According to analysts, reduced processing demand in May is to be expected given the time of year and shifting of soy product focus to South America.

Falling crush margins at the beginning of May as a result of the big push in cash prices amid tight soy supplies helped limit crush offtake as well, analysts said.

In its June 14 report, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) said the May crush was 127.8 million bushels, down 3.9 million bushels from April. May soymeal stocks are seen rising to 366,200 tonnes, up from the 296,200 tonnes reported for April.

The slow down in the US soymeal export programme is seen building supplies, industry participants said. Soyoil stocks are seen declining to 3.242 billion pounds in the report, down from 3.355 billion the previous month. In the NOPA report, soyoil stocks saw a 79.9 million pound decrease in stocks.

Meanwhile, US soy represents more than half the total value of US agricultural exports to China. The value of soy exports to the country reached a record US$9.2 billion last year.

Earlier USDA secretary Tom Vilsack's announced that China and the US have agreed to address inspection, quarantine and quality and safety of US soy exports to China.

However, there are still issues that need to be addressed such as China's requirement of a phytosanitary certificate for all imports of soyoil. According to ASA vice president Randy Mann, USDA officials have been working closely with Chinese officials to identify an alternative approach that would be acceptable to both countries.