The value of Australian beef exports will rebound next fiscal year starting July 1, even though the volume of exports will contract a little, according to projections issued Tuesday (Jun 22) by the government's chief commodities forecaster.

 

The value of beef exports will jump 13% on-year to AUD4.75 billion (US$4.14 billion) next fiscal year, while the volume of exports will ease 1.1% on-year to 910,000 boneless tonnes of beef, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Abare) forecast in its quarterly outlook publication.

 

Australia is the world's second-biggest exporter of beef, after Brazil.

 

The country's beef export volumes are forecast to decline a little next fiscal year, reflecting the effect of domestic herd rebuilding on export availability and weaker demand in some export markets, such as Indonesia.

 

Abare's forecasts assume an average exchange rate for the Australian dollar next fiscal year will be US$0.87, down from an estimated average for 2009-10 of US$0.88.

 

Among key beef export markets, shipments to the US are forecast to rise 15% to 230,000 tonnes next fiscal year, in part reflecting an improving economy and rising demand, from 200,000 tonnes in 2009-10. Exports to the US slumped almost one-third last fiscal year. Beef exports to Japan will creep a little higher next fiscal year to 360,000 tonnes as they will to South Korea at 124,000 tonnes, Abare reported.

 

It also said Russia's new non-country-specific import quota improves market access arrangements for Australia and means Australian exports of frozen beef to Russia will be able to compete freely with other exporters without exclusive limits for Australian access.

 

The competitiveness of Australian beef exports will be the major determinant of access to the price sensitive Russian market, which briefly in recent years became Australia's third largest beef export market, it said.

 

Major factors that could affect Australian beef exports to Russia in the short term are the effects of herd rebuilding in Australia, which could limit availability of export supply, and movements in exchange rates that could affect the price competitiveness of Australian beef compared with other competitors, Abare said.

 

Live cattle exports next fiscal year will fall 6.2% to 850,000 beasts from 906,000 this fiscal year, it forecast.

 

Although demand for beef will remain strong in Indonesia in 2010-11, uncertainty over the timing of the release of import permits and the availability of lighter weight cattle is expected to restrict shipments to Indonesia of Australian beasts, which are forecast to fall 17% on-year to 580,000 beasts.