June 23, 2008
 

Australia wheat exports may more than double in 2008-09

Australia's wheat exports will more than double next fiscal year on the back of an expected rebound in production, the government's chief commodities analyst, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, forecast Monday (June 23, 20008).

Wheat exports are forecast to rise to 14.1 million tonnes compared with 6.8 million tonnes this fiscal year ending June 30, the bureau said in its quarterly Australian Commodities outlook.

Exports for the year beginning July 1 are estimated at AUS$5.04 billion compared with AUS$2.59 billion this year, according to the outlook report that reiterates many of the forecasts issued in a Crop Report mid June, said.

Production will rise to 23.7 million tonnes next fiscal year from a drought-affected 13.0 million tonnes this year, it said.

After domestic demand of almost 7 million tonnes a year is met, the remainder of production is available for export, usually making Australia a major global supplier.

Abare forecast the price of the key US hard red winter wheat, FOB U.S. Gulf of Mexico, will average US$320/tonne next fiscal year, down 12 percent from US$362/tonnes this fiscal year, as world wheat supplies are forecast to rise quicker than the increase in consumption, it said.

For next fiscal year, Abare projects world production at 650 million tonnes, consumption at 632 million tonnes, closing inventories at 131 million tonnes and global trade at 109 million tonnes.

For this fiscal year, it estimated production at 604 million tonnes, consumption at 612 million tonnes, closing inventories at 112 million tonnes and global trade at 105 million tonnes.