June 22, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Down 10-15 cents on outside markets, better weather

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are seen starting Monday's day session lower, pressured by bearish outside market influences and improved crop weather outlooks.

 

CBOT soybean futures are seen opening 10 cents to 15 cents lower.

 

A firmer U.S. dollar, lower crude oil and equities coupled with weather conditions that promote crop development and final plantings have soybeans poised to start the session on the defensive, said Vic Lespinasse, analyst with Grainsanalyst.com

 

The absence of fresh supportive news is expected to promote the lower tone, but traders will keep a close eye on outside markets and weather updates for potential shifts in price direction, analysts said.

 

Otherwise, technical factors will come into play, with positioning ahead of the July delivery period and end-of-month acres and stocks reports underlying features.

 

A technical analyst said first resistance for November soybeans is seen at US$10.25 and then at US$10.40. First support is seen at US$10.00 and then at US$9.80.

 

DTN Meteorlogix said U.S. soybeans will benefit from warmer to hotter temperatures and periodic thundershower activity this week in the Midwest. This may also be a better weather pattern for the final planting effort for soybeans but this is a little more uncertain.

 

Large speculative traders now hold 82,196 net long positions in CBOT soybean futures and options combined contracts as of June 16, compared with net longs of 92,848 in the previous week, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in its supplemental commitment of traders report.

 

Index funds increased their net long positions in CBOT soybean futures and options. The combined number climbed to 133,257 contracts from 131,577 the prior week, according to the CFTC in its supplemental commitments of traders report released Friday. Commercials held net short combined futures and options positions totaling 187,430 contracts, down from the previous week's 204,866 contracts, as reported in the CFTC supplemental report.

 

On tap for Monday, U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT and its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT.

 

In other news, India's crude soyoil imports have surged to around 270,000 metric tonnes last week compared with a little over 400,000 tonnes received in the first seven months of the marketing year starting November, trading executives said.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell Monday, tracking Friday's retreat on the Chicago Board of Trade as oversupply concerns piled on the selling pressure. The benchmark January 2010 soybean contract declined 1.3% to RMB3,600 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange fell as much as 5.6% Monday on concerns importers may be seeking postponement of cargoes, trade participants said. The benchmark September CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR128 lower at MYR2,157 a metric tonne.