June 21, 2012
Russia's 2012-13 grain export potential to decrease 18 million tonnes
Igor Pavensky, head of the department of analysis of the section of strategic marketing of CJSC "Rusagrotrans" forecasted that in the new agricultural year (July 2012-June 2013), Russia's grain export potential will drop to the level of 18 million tonnes and below, the major volume will be taken out until January 1, 2013.
According to I.Pavensky, in the current agricultural year grain exports consistent with peas volumes may total nearly 27.4 million tonnes.
Despite the expectation of grain export lowering in May 2012 to one million tonnes, the forecast of the analytical centre of "Rusagrotrans" was justified - the exports totalled nearly 1.4 million tonnes, he said, noting that grain volumes from the intervention fund covered some part of exports.
According to the expert forecasts, in June 2012, the exports may reach nearly one million tonnes. I.Pavensky also reported that "Rusagrotrans" reduced the forecast of the general grain harvest in 2012 to 87.9 million tonnes, against 89.4 million tonnes of the previous forecast.
According to him, the harvest volumes in southern regions will significantly reduce. The Centre and Volga regions will be a slight increase. In the Siberian regions there is a forecast of a slight decline and the Urals will produce the average annual harvest, despite the record one last year.
Taking into account the reduction of grain carry-over stocks as of the beginning of the new agricultural year (July 1, 2012) to 15.1 million tonnes, against 16.8 million tonnes in the beginning of the current one, and the growth of consumption, the export potential of Russia can make no more than 18 million tonnes, said I.Pavensky.
According to I.Pavensky, due to the sharply increased port capacities of Russia, as well as continuation of grain supplies through the Baltic ports and the favourable price conjuncture, the major grain volumes - 80-85% - will be exported prior to January 2013. Then the competition from the domestic market will strengthen, and the volume of exports will fall, he forecasted.
