June 21, 2005
ASA Weekly: Soy rust discovered in US; WTO GMO ruling delayed till Oct
Seventh Asian soybean rust discovery in US
USDA reported a new Asian soybean rust (ASR) discovery in the week of Jun 13 in kudzu, near Tallahassee, Florida. This marks the fifth ASR case in Florida this season, all in kudzu, and is the seventh in US.
The action that farmers need to take to deal with ASR depends on the stage of crop development, the proximity to ASR discoveries, the projected paths of the disease's spread, and the amount of inoculum the source areas are considered capable of producing.
Currently, none of the soybeans in the immediate area of the ASR discoveries are at the critical stage of mid-blooming to early pod development (R-3)-the stage that most agronomists recommend preventative ASR fungicide treatments. Research has shown that soybeans in the vegetative stage that are infected with ASR and treated with fungicide, can have little to no meaningful loss to its yield potential. The region where ASR has been discovered has the least-advanced soybeans.
USDA also reported last week that Tropical Storm Arlene may have distributed ASR spores in Mississippi and Louisiana as well as Tennessee and Kentucky. However, it may not be till Jun 26 before plants show any reddish pustules from rust spores spread by the storm system.
WTO GMO ruling delayed till Oct
EU will have to wait till late October to get the definitive word from the WTO on a complaint filed by the US, Canada and Argentina, contesting what they claim is the EU's moratorium on approvals of genetically modified organisms (GMOs).
The chairman of the WTO panel, Swiss trade diplomat Christian Haberli, told the parties in the dispute that the panel's ruling, due by end-June, would be put off till end-October. Haberli cited the complexity of the case, the large amount of documentation submitted, as well as the decision to consult with scientific experts on technical issues raised, as the reasons for the delay.
The delay means that the final ruling will be issued more than two years after the panel was established on the request of the co-complainants. The three plaintiffs claim that EU has imposed a moratorium on the approval of products containing GMOs since Oct 1998 without any justification, blocking a number of marketing applications already in the pipeline.
Argentina expects record soybean output
Argentina is expected to harvest a record 38.3 million tonnes of soybeans in 2004-05, its Agriculture Secretariat announced in the week of Jun 13. This estimate would put Argentine soybean production up by 21.6% from 31.5 million tonnes a year ago. USDA expects 2004-05 Argentine production to reach 39 million tonnes while the Buenos Aires Exchange estimates production at 38.85 million tonnes.
Planted area is expected to reach 14.4 million hectares, slightly down from the 14.5 million hectares last year. USDA also estimates planted area at 14.2 million hectares.
The reason for the slight decrease in planted area is attributed to soybeans prices not being as appealing as a year earlier, the Secretariat explained. Area is down in La Pampa, Cordoba, Chaco and Santiago del Estero, but unchanged in Buenos Aires and Santa Fe.
Brazil worried about China's retaliatory restriction
Brazil is concerned that China may impose restrictions on their soybean shipments in retaliation against Brazil's proposed barriers targeting Chinese imports, Dow Jones reported. Brazil is considering import tariffs and quotas on Chinese products that it believes are being dumped, such as textiles and footwear.
If China does impose such restrictions, it would not be the first time Brazilian soybean exporters have had problems shipping to China. Last year, Chinese authorities banned most soybean shipments from Brazil for about six weeks, after a small number of tainted seeds were found in cargoes.
Brazil feels it is in a position of power because of China's insatiable demand for soybeans. However, retaliation may still be an option if China has overbooked soybean shipments.
Global protein demand to skyrocket by 2050
World population growth and increasing incomes will boost global demand for protein to two-and-half times current levels by 2050, according to Roger Gilbert, Secretary General the International Feed Industry Federation. Gilbert stated that global growth in protein demand would pose major challenges and opportunities for the oilseed and grain industries.
From 6.4 billion in 2005, the world's population is projected to grow to 9.2 billion by 2050, according to Gilbert. Global welfare is also expected to increase, and studies suggested that for every 1 percent increase in income levels, a 2 percent increase could be expected in spending on protein sources.
Gilbert pointed out that total world feed production at present is about 614 million tonnes, of which about two-thirds is produced in just four producer areas¡ªnamely US (145 million tonnes), EU (140 million tonnes), China (90 million tonnes) and Brazil (44 million tonnes).
Population centres with large livestock industries, such as India, also have very small compound feed sectors.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
5,663 |
4,853 |
3,059 |
896 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
681 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
|
Production |
75,010 |
66,778 |
85,484 |
35,500 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
52,000 |
52,600 |
53,000 |
|
Imports |
127 |
151 |
136 |
400 |
540 |
350 |
1,124 |
350 |
213 |
|
Crush |
43,966 |
41,631 |
44,906 |
24,723 |
24,298 |
26,842 |
27,796 |
29,172 |
30,215 |
|
Exports |
28,441 |
23,946 |
29,937 |
8,910 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
19,987 |
19,571 |
20,888 |
|
Other |
3,540 |
3,146 |
4,171 |
1,533 |
1,552 |
1,652 |
2,893 |
3,150 |
3,200 |
|
Usage |
75,947 |
68,723 |
79,014 |
35,166 |
32,350 |
37,194 |
50,676 |
51,893 |
54,303 |
|
Carryout |
4,853 |
3,059 |
9,665 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
4,976 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
3,096 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
218 |
200 |
191 |
330 |
347 |
250 |
490 |
763 |
469 |
|
Production |
34,666 |
32,953 |
35,674 |
19,486 |
19,050 |
21,253 |
21,950 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
|
Domestic use |
29,380 |
29,257 |
30,345 |
250 |
260 |
270 |
8,750 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
|
Net Exports |
5,304 |
3,705 |
5,293 |
19,219 |
18,887 |
20,583 |
12,927 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
|
Usage |
34,684 |
32,962 |
35,638 |
19,469 |
19,147 |
20,853 |
21,677 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
|
Carryout |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
250 |
650 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
1,070 |
676 |
488 |
105 |
99 |
74 |
150 |
150 |
93 |
|
Production |
8,363 |
7,748 |
8,509 |
4,554 |
4,435 |
4,947 |
5,031 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
|
Domestic use |
7,752 |
7,651 |
7,847 |
130 |
130 |
145 |
2,668 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
|
Net exports |
1,005 |
285 |
587 |
4,430 |
4,330 |
4,676 |
2,363 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
|
Usage |
8,757 |
7,936 |
8,434 |
4,560 |
4,460 |
4,821 |
5,031 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
|
Carryout |
676 |
488 |
563 |
99 |
74 |
200 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 09 June 2005 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
0.8 |
328.5 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.2 |
11.4 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
0.8 |
339.6 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
2.1 |
244 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
3.2 |
11791.6 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
9.7 |
734.6 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
3.2 |
112.9 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
1.4 |
84.7 |
|
Cuba |
Soybeans |
15 |
77.9 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
0.8 |
75.0 |
|
Denmark |
Soybeans |
1.8 |
858.8 |
|
Vietnam |
Soymeal |
0.5 |
3.7 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
103.2 |
2509.6 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
10.4 |
29.6 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
64.4 |
2734.2 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
1.3 |
129.1 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
23.5 |
153.3 |
|
Oman |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
14.2 |
75.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
9 |
1406.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
8.0 |
564.6 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
8.8 |
661.4 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
3.9 |
164.8 |
|
Soybeans |
1,481.2 |
28,024.5 |
182.7 |
|
Ecuador |
Soymeal |
5.1 |
29.4 |
|
Soymeal |
664.2 |
4,493.5 |
53.8 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
10.1 |
188.3 |
|
Soyoil |
32.2 |
359.8 |
-0.2 |
