June 20, 2012

 

Australia's agricultural export earnings to remain high toward 2013

 

Export profits from Australia's agricultural and natural resources-based products are expected to remain high toward 2013.

 

According to the Agricultural Commodities - June quarter 2012 report, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) has forecast the value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports to be around AUD38.1 billion (US$38.8) billion in total in 2012-2013.

 

ABARES acting Executive Director, Dr Kim Ritman said export earnings from Australia's rural exports are expected to remain high in 2012-2013.

 

"This is supported by continued strong demand in the Asian region," Dr Ritman said.

 

"Farm export earnings are forecast to be around AUD34.4 billion (US$35 billion) in 2012-2013."

 

Although this forecast is 4.5% lower than an estimated high of AUD36 billion (US$36.7 billion) in 2011-2012, it is still markedly higher than the AUD32.4 billion (US$33 billion) recorded in 2010-2011 and the average of AUD29.7 billion (US$30.2 billion) over the five years ending 2010-11.

 

Export earnings from forest products are forecast to increase by 3.4% to AUD2.4 billion (US$2.44 billion) in 2012-2013, compared with estimated earnings of AUD2.3 billion (US$2.34 billion) in 2011-2012.

 

For seafood products, export earnings are forecast to rise by 1.5% to around AUD1.3 billion (US$1.32 billion) in 2012-2013, after remaining largely unchanged in 2011-2012.

 

The updated 2012-2013 forecast of export earnings from agricultural and natural resources based products represents a marginal downward revision to the forecast of AUD38.9 billion (US$39.6 billion) released by ABARES in March 2012.

 

"This downward revision mainly reflects forecast lower world prices for some agricultural commodities," Dr Ritman said.

 

Reflecting increased world supplies, the world indicator wheat price is forecast to average around US$260 per tonne in 2012-2013, compared with an estimated US$298 per tonne in 2011-2012.

 

For beef and veal, the Australian saleyard price is forecast to remain relatively high at an average of AUD0.320 (US$0.326) per kilogramme in 2012-13.