June 20, 2008

 

Water crisis looms for China's Northern Plains

China's northern plains, the breadbasket of the country, is facing a looming water crisis as increased urbanisation compete with farmlands for increasingly scarce water resources, according to a USDA GAIN report on the water situation in the region.

 

The report, dated June 12, 2008 focused on how the water scarcity and pollution issues will impact agricultural production in this region.

 

The report noted that China, though having the fifth largest water supply in the world, had one of the world's lowest per capita water supply. This was because of its having 20 percent of the world's population but only 7 percent of the world's water supply.

 

This is further stressed by the fact that most of its water supply is located in the South while agricultural production is concentrated in the north.

 

Northern China has less than 18 percent of the total water supply, but 64 percent of the country's farmland. Most agricultural production in northern China is possible due to irrigation.

 

Water prioritiesin China have shifted from agriculture to urban and industrial development, the report noted.

 

Growth in water demand, more frequent droughts, and a stagnant water supply, all contribute to the overexploitation of water resources of both ground and surface water in China, the report said.

 

The gradual decrease in water allocated for agriculture may have serious consequences for China's most productive agriculture region, which provides half of China's wheat and a third of the country's corn, the report said.

 

The North China Plain is the most productive agricultural area and the most water stressed. The area ncludes: Hebei, Henan, and Shandong Provinces and the municipalities of Beijing and Tianjin, with the last two being the fastest growing.

 

The NCP faces several problems both in groundwater and surface water, while the former is being overexploited by farmers, the latter is being over-polluted by industries, agricultural production and urban centres.

 

The NCP has restricted rainfall and depends on groundwater for 60 percent of its water supply, which is an unsustainable level, the report said. Furthermore, it is one of the most densely populated and developed areas of China, the report warned.

 

Government efforts to free up more water for use may see little results.

 

A government project to deliver water from the abundant south to the north was seen to have little effect on agriculture as the high prices for use would mean the water is destined for urban or industrial areas, the report said.

 

Due to variable rainfall patterns and recent droughts, a large share of the cropland for most types of crops grown in the NCP is irrigated.

 

Farmers in the NCP rely on irrigation to double crop, which involves an irrigated winter wheat crop harvested in early June followed by a corn or cotton crop harvested in early September.

 

Farmers also plant a second crop within their wheat crop field, usually a more profitable cash crop such as peanuts.

 

Without irrigation, farmers would be unable to double-crop or produce enough fruits and vegetables to justify the additional fertiliser and labour expenses, the report said.

 

In the North China Plain, groundwater is the mostly widely used water source as it is in greater supply and thus provides a much larger share of the water used for irrigation.

 

 

Ground water
 

As surface water (from rivers) has become increasingly scarce, farms had to rely more heavily on ground water.

 

Farmers now have to dig deeper wells as shallow aquifers run dry. This is because the strains placed on the aquifers by both urban and rural uses reduce the amount of time available for the groundwater to recharge, the report noted. 

 

In many areas of the NCP, groundwater tables are dropping at a rate greater than 1 metre per year, which specialists say is unsustainable.

 

In a roundabout way, farmers would have to pay more for increasingly scarce water as they incur higher costs in digging deeper wells.

 

However, as water tables fall, farmers plant more cash crops so as to offset higher water costs. This could mean lesser grain and tighter supply on the world markets, the report noted.

 

But if global grain prices are high enough, farmers may switch back to grains if they are able to offset the high water prices.

 

However, over the last twenty years, the number of privately owned wells has increased as there is no control over ground water pumping. With ground water tables falling rapidly, the owners of privately owned wells may pump themselves out of a market, the report said.

 

 

Surface water

 

The report noted that most farmers do not use water efficiently due to inefficient water delivery methods, the low cost of water, the high cost of drip and sprinkler systems, and a lack of education.

 

With water only available 4-5 times during an irrigation season and having little knowledge on irrigation best practices, farmers simply take all that is available to them when there is water in the canal.

 

The canal system is highly inefficient, the report said. The design of this canal system makes it very difficult for farmers to adopt more efficient irrigation techniques such as drip or sprinkler systems.

 

Moreover, farmers would have to pay for such systems and the cost of electricity to pump the water to them.

 

Since farmers are charged for surface irrigated and not for the volume of water applied, there is little incentive to encourage efficient water application.

 

The many levels of bureaucracy concerned with water use in China and the lack of funding for these agencies meant that irrigation infrastructure is not well maintained.

 

The irrigation districts also have little incentive to improve delivery times and volume because they have no control over fees.

 

The pollution of China's water resources is also a critical issue as untreated industrial and municipal water are the main sources of pollutants that are severely affecting China's major rivers. Agricultural inputs, such as fertilisers and pesticides also contribute to polluted water.

 

Water quality in China is measured by a Grade system, I-V. Grade I represents drinking water and Grade V is unfit for any use without treatment.

 

The report quoted sources that said that among the 27 lakes and reservoirs monitored by the Ministry of Environmental Protection in 2004, none met the Grade I standard, and six of them were at the Grade V standard (3 of which were large lakes).

 

Although crops can safely be irrigated with Grade III and sometimes Grade IV water, China's agricultural industry still loses anywhere from US$8 billion to US$ 24 billion  a year due to water scarcity and water pollution.

 

 

Impact on agricultural production and trade

 

The report added that although China has a history of remarkable achievements and may be able to mitigate the anticipated water crisis, agricultural production inputs, such as arable land and water would become increasingly scarce and the quality increasingly lower at a time of rising demand.

 

This would lead only to more grain imports and a heavier impact on global prices.

 

If government policy were to restrict irrigation water use for grain production due to increasing scarcity, they may have to relax the country's food security policy. Doing so means more grain imports, causing rising global demand for grains.

 

However, as increased fertiliser use has worsened water supplies, the opposite might happen as the government might encourage farmers to shift from cash crops to grain crops (which require lesser fertiliser) and hence increase global grain supplies.

 

For the full report, please click here