June 20, 2006

 

Australia's Abare cuts 2006-07 wheat crop estimates down 9.2 percent

 

 

A dry autumn forced a downgrading Tuesday (Jun 20) in an official forecast for Australian new crop wheat production to 22.8 million tonnes, if achieved down 9.2 percent from actual output of 25.1 million tonnes last crop year ended Mar 31, 2006.

 

The new crop forecast is also down from a March projection of 24.5 million tonnes.

 

Abare estimated new barley production at 8.5 million tonnes, if achieved, it would be down 14 percent from actual output of 9.9 million tonnes last crop year.

 

Total production from new winter crops is projected at 36.2 million tonnes, if achieved, it would be down 11 percent from an actual 40.5 million tonnes last crop year, Abare said.

 

Abare Executive Director Brian Fisher said the dry autumn across most states except South Australia resulted in a revision of the estimated area planted to new winter crops.

 

South Australia had a good start to the winter cropping season, but all other states are waiting for additional rain to finish sowing, he said.

 

Victoria and Western Australia received autumn rains that enabled significant planting to occur, but lack of follow-up rain has prevented the completion of intended plantings in these states, he said.

 

Crops that were sown in those states are now starting to suffer from moisture stress, he said.

 

In southern Queensland, no significant planting rains had fallen by mid-June, resulting in a major reduction in the planted area, he said.

 

Widespread falls in cropping areas in New South Wales over the second weekend of June allowed some crops to be planted, he said.

 

But lack of subsoil moisture in some regions will place these crops in a vulnerable position if dry conditions continue, he said.

 

                Australian wheat production by state

                             (millions of tonnes)

                                     Latest              Output Last

                                   Forecast             Crop year

New South Wales              6.8                      7.9

Victoria                            2.6                      2.7

Queensland                      1.1                      1.4

Western Australia             8.6                      9.5

South Australia                 3.6                      3.6

Total                              22.8                     25.1

 

 

Abare also estimated national consumption of wheat will rise to 5.7 million tonnes next shipping year from 5.5 million tonnes this shipping year ending Sep 30, 2006.

 

Exports will rise next shipping year to 17.5 million tonnes from 16.1 million tonnes this year, Abare estimated.

 

Inventories next shipping year will fall 366,000 tonnes, swinging from an addition to stocks this shipping year of 3.5 million tonnes, Abare projected.

  

              MAJOR AUSTRALIAN WINTER-GROWN CROP PRODUCTION

                                         (millions of tonnes)

                                 Latest                        Output Last

                               Forecast                       Crop Year

Wheat                         22.8                              25.1

Barley                          8.5                                9.9

Oats                             1.2                               1.4

Canola                         1.4                                1.4

Lupins                          0.9                                1.0

Fields Peas                   0.3                                0.4

Chick Peas                   0.1                                0.1

Faba Beans                  0.3                                0.3

Lentils                          0.2                                0.2