June 20, 2006

China could take up half of global soy trade within the year

In 2006/07, China alone could dominate as much as 83 percent of the growth in world soy  imports and 45 percent of the entire volume of international trade, according to a USDA Oil Crops Outlook released Jun 12.

China's processors would need to import approximately 31.5 million tonnes of soy next year to satisfy feed demand and maintain stocks, up from the 2005/06 forecast of 27.5 million, the report said.

Soymeal consumption growth for China is forecast up 9 percent next year to 29.5 million tonnes, more rapidly than anywhere else in the world.

For China, tighter domestic supplies of soy and rising consumption could boost 2006/07 imports sharply.

Superior production incentives for corn production in China are taking away soy area, USDA said.

The domestic soy harvest is expected to dip to a figure well below consumption, according to the USDA report.