June 20, 2006

 

2006 US poultry production expected to be 6 percent higher than 2005

 

 

For 2006, poultry production is expected to be 26.1 billion pounds, almost 6 percent more than in 2005, according to USDA's June Livestock, Diary and Poultry report.

 

However, the production for April 2005 and 2006 remained unchanged.  The overall slow down in broiler meat production has begun to lower cold storage holdings and has put upward pressure on broiler prices, USDA said.

 

US broiler exports were lower in April, compared with April 2005. Shipments for April 2006 totaled 441 million pounds, down 6 percent from April 2005, largely due to lower shipments to Russia, the report noted.

 

Meanwhile, total broiler meat production in April was 2.82 billion pounds, down 1.3 percent from April 2005.

 

USDA said the major reason for the decline in production was that April 2006 had one less slaughter day than last year. One less slaughter day resulted in 2.9 percent fewer birds being slaughtered compared with April 2005. The reduction in the number of birds slaughtered was partially offset by a 1.7-percent increase in average live weights.

 

Broiler meat production is expected to be higher in May, as May 2006 has an additional slaughter day compared with a year ago.

 

However, with a lower number of chicks being placed for growout, the total number of birds for slaughter is expected to be below May 2005.

 

The reduced number of birds being slaughtered is again expected to be partially offset by higher average live weights.

 

Over the last several weeks prices for most broiler products have strengthened, as production growth has slowed and cold storage levels have started to decline from earlier record levels.

 

Even with the increases in May, however, prices for boneless/skinless breast meat were still 19 percent lower than in May 2005. A continuation of breast meat price increases are likely, as early-June prices had already increased to around US$1.25 per pound.

 

Prices for other broiler parts have followed the same path as breast meat, with prices increasing strongly in May, but still lower than the same period in 2005. As with breast meat, prices for most broiler parts have continued to strengthen in early June and are expected to move up through most of the third quarter.

 

Next year, US broiler exports are expected to increase almost 2 percent.

 

Second-quarter commercial beef production is expected to be 6.65 billion pounds, an increase of more than 7 percent over the same period last year.

 

Retail beef prices will likely average in the high US$3.90 a pound this year, down from US$4.09 a pound in 2005.

 

Consumers' per capita beef consumption, at 66.9 pounds, increased more than 2 percent over 2005.

Commercial pork production is expected to be 5.1 billion pounds in the second quarter and 21.3 billion pounds for 2006, increases of 1 percent and 2.8 percent, over year-earlier periods, respectively.

 

Foreign demand for pork remain strong, with April exports almost 2 percent above April 2005, and cumulated (January-April) exports at 1.026 billion pounds, 16 percent above the same period last year.

 

Prices of live equivalent 51-52 percent lean hogs are expected to average between US$46 and US$47 per cwt for the second quarter, almost 11 percent below a year ago, while 2006 prices will likely average between US$43 and US$44, 13 percent below 2005.

 

Retail pork prices are expected to average in the high US$2.70s per pound this year, almost 2 percent lower than 2005. Per capita 2006 pork consumption is expected to be 49.9 pounds, slightly lower than last year.