June 20, 2006

 

US soymeal exports reaches 5-year-high

 

 

US soymeal exports would be up to a 5-year high of 7.75 million tonnes in Jun 2006, encouraged by a growing supply of soymeal. according to USDA's Oil Crops Outlook released Jun 13.

 

There is also a moderate increase in domestic use to 34.1 million tonnes. 2006/07 ending stocks forecast was raised to 655 million bushels, according to the report.

 

USDA expects that 2006/07 world oilseed production will experience a negligible 0.2-percent decline to 389.4 million tonnes.

 

For soy, global output is projected at 222.0 million tonnes, a slight 1.8-million-tonne increase over the current season, the report said.

 

However, USDA said there would be an 8.4-million-tonne increase in the US carryover of soy stocks, likely accounting for 91 percent of the entire increase in world supply.

 

USDA expects the US share of the export market to increase from 37 percent to 42 percent, at the expense of market share for Brazil.

 

Planting of soy s has proceeded without major problems this spring.

 

Nationally, farmers have sown 89 percent of soy as of June 4.

 

If producers carry through on their planting intentions, US soy acreage would be a record-high 76.9 million acres, the USDA estimated.

 

Projected 2006 soy production is at a near-record 3.08 billion bushels.

 

Annual growth in domestic consumption is projected at 2 percent to 34.1 million tonnes.

 

Lower-than-expected meal demand mainly accounts for this month's reduction of the crop year crush forecast (by 5 million bushels to 1,715 million).

 

Weak export shipments of soy oil during May also contributed to a 50-million-pound reduction of its 2005/06 trade forecast to 1.075 billion pounds.

 

Through the next several months, however, crushing should retain some support from larger outstanding export sales of soymeal.