June 19, 2009

Soy futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were unchanged Friday amid thin trade, with conflicting supply signals resulting in a lack of clear direction.

 

The benchmark January 2010 soy contract settled at RMB3,646 a metric tonne.

 

"There isn't much fluctuation around this time, and there isn't much trading going on," said Li Xiaoli, of Beite Futures.

 

Absent external cues, soy price movements are constrained by the government's stockpiling policy, Li said.

 

But concern over high expected soy import levels in June and July has weighed on soy prices, analysts said, even contracts for soymeal - produced from more expensive imported soy - have edged higher.

 

"With import levels already projected at record highs for this crop year, futures traders are anticipating that there has to be a decrease in import volumes soon," Li said.

 

Soy futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended mixed Thursday, with nearby contracts up on strong export sales, particularly to China, but more distant contracts declining on a favorable weather outlook.

 

"The absence of key market-moving fundamental news flow has led to lackluster price moves that are being directed by the vagaries of the outside markets," Barclays Capital said in a note Friday.

 

Corn, palm oil and soyoil futures all fell slightly in Dalian Friday.

              

Friday's settlement prices in yuan a metric tonne for benchmark contracts and volume for all contracts in lots (One lot is equivalent to 10 tonnes):

                        

Contract    Settlement       Price        Change       Volume

Soy            Jan 2010        3,646          Unch         96,404

Corn           Jan 2010        1,627        Dn    1        52,746

Soymeal     Jan 2010        2,914        Up    2     1,238,524

Palm Oil      Jan 2010        6,154        Dn   46      353,952

Soyoil         Jan 2010        7,514        Dn   24      670,446