Strategie Grains holds EU wheat production at 133.1 million tonnes

EU 2010-11 soft wheat production was left broadly unchanged at 133.1 million tonnes despite noticeable shifts in regional harvests within the EU, Strategie Grains data showed Thursday (Jun 17).

The company estimates EU soft wheat output will be 100,000 tonnes higher than its estimate in May and up 2.5% compared with the previous year's output of 129.8 million tonnes.

Although the forecast remains broadly the same, it hides large regional disparities in the upcoming harvest, the firm said.

A drought in April and May in northern France and the British Isles led the firm to reduce its production forecasts for those countries by 1.2 million tonnes. Central Europe was also hit by excessive rainfall in May which led the firm to lower yield potentials in those countries. These falls, however, were offset by an expected 1.8 million tonnes rise in production for Bulgaria and Romania as a result of the continuing very favourable weather conditions in both countries, Strategie Grains said.

"The EU supply-and-demand outlook at this stage shows a heavy situation in Scandinavia and the east EU countries (except Poland) and a situation in the western countries where supply and demand is close to balance. This outlook is bearish in terms of prices in Scandinavia and central Europe," the company said.

EU grain production for 2010-11 was revised down 1.7 million tonnes to 287.8 million tonnes compared with the company's May estimate. The figure is nearly five million tonnes less than the previous year's EU grain output.

Strategie Grains decreased its EU grain forecast due to concerns over barley production, which is now estimated at 55.6 million tonnes compared with 56.4 million tonnes in May.

EU corn output in 2010-11 was also revised down by 200,000 tonnes from the May forecast to 58.3 million tonnes and the durum wheat harvest was increased from May's figure by 300,000 tonnes to 8.7 million tonnes.