Dry weather to cost EU two million tonnes in grain output

The dry weather which parched crops in some of Europe's main arable regions has cost at least 2 million tonnes in grains production, and left the region's barley crop - the world's biggest - on course for a five-year low.

Strategie Grains cited spring dryness for a 1.2-million-tonne cut in its forecast for wheat output in France, the EU's leading producer, Ireland and the UK. It also cut by 800,000 tonnes its forecast for barley output in the three countries, which are between them responsible for one third of the EU harvest.

The dry weather has cut hopes in particular for the malting barley crop which, EU-wide, will come in at 10.5 million tonnes, 500,000 tonnes lower than previously expected.

Europe's barley crop, which typically accounts for more than 40% of world production, now looks on course to come in at 55.6 million tonnes, the much watched analysis group said.

That would be the lowest figure since 2005-06, according to USDA forecasts, and reflects a global turn against the grain, whose prices have been particularly poor and which, in Europe, loses intervention support from this season.

However, for wheat, Strategie Grains said that the impact of weaker western EU crops would be made up by better hopes for harvests in some eastern countries which received favourable amounts of rain, rather than the downpours which led to heavy flooding in some neighbouring states.

The analysis group lifted its estimate for Bulgarian and Romanian harvests by 1.8 million tonnes, leaving its estimate for overall EU production at 133.1 million tonnes, some 100,000 tonnes higher than a month ago.

The production estimate for corn grain was trimmed by 200,000 tonnes to 58.2 million tonnes, thanks to the central European floods, which had led many farmers to turn to later-maturing varieties used for making silage.