US soy crush seen higher in June

 

 

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on June 10 announced the US soy crush for the 2009 crop had been raised 5 million bushels to 1.74 billion bushels.

 

Soymeal exports were projected at 11.5 million tonnes, almost 2 million tonnes above the 1997-98 record meal exports. Lower domestic soymeal consumption partially offset export increases.

 

Soy ending stocks for the 2009 US crop were projected at 185 million bushels; while ending stocks for 2010-11 were reduced 5 million bushels to 360 million bushels. The soy ending stocks for 2008 were 135 million bushels.

 

Global oilseed production for 2010-11 is projected at 440.2 million tonnes (about 16 billion bushels). Brazil's 2009-10 soy production was increased to 69 million tonnes (2.5 billion bushels).

 

On the CME Group Exchange on June 11, the July future closed at US$9.45; August at US$9.29; September at US$9.13 1/2; November at US$9.09; January 2011 at US$9.20; March at US$9.24 1/2, and May at US$9.27 per bushel.

 

The market remains inverted with the highest prices offered for the close up months. Compared to prices on May 27, the July future was 5 cents lower; the August and September futures were 11 cents lower; the November future was 8 1/2 cents lower, January 2011 was 8 cents lower, March was 9 cents lower, and May was 13 cents lower per bushel.

 

The June 10 export sales were above trade expectations for US soy. China purchased just 60,000 tonnes (2 million bushels) of new crop US soy.

 

Analysts said that soy and corn traders were paying attention to the direction of the crude oil market and the value of the dollar. Traders were also looking at the long-range weather forecasts for soy.

 

Meanwhile, the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting below normal temperatures for June, July and August in the east central Corn Belt, and above normal precipitation for the west central Corn Belt.

 

On June 30, the USDA will release the refined acreage report for the United States. In the March 31 report, the USDA estimated 88.8 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2010. Soy producers intended to plant 78.1 million acres.