June 18, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Mixed; market looking for direction

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are expected to start Thursday's day session with a mixed undertone, as the market searches for direction in the absence of fresh news and mixed signals from outside markets, analysts said.

 

CBOT soybean futures are seen opening mixed, from 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher.

 

A lack of leadership in the market is promoting a choppy, consolidative atmosphere, with traders taking a wait and see approach in the absence of fresh leadership for prices, a CBOT floor analyst said.

 

Mild support is seen from weekly export sales for soybeans and the products, with lingering concerns about tight supplies remaining an underpinning theme. However, a lack of fresh support and talk of weather conditions turning favorable for developing crops in the next 10 days is seen limiting upside movement.

 

Otherwise, traders will eye outside markets for direction heading toward key end-of-month stocks and acreage reports. In early action, crude oil is lower, equities futures are higher, and the U.S. dollar is firmer.

 

U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales were a net 250,700 metric tonnes for the week ended June 11. Sales for 2008-09 were a net 145,700 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 50,000 and 350,000 metric tonnes.

 

Soymeal sales were a net 202,100 tonnes. Trade estimates ranged from 50,000 to 200,000 tonnes. Soyoil commitments were 21,600 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between zero and 15,000 tonnes.

 

DTN Meteorlogix said thunderstorms, some with heavy rain is on tap for another 24-48 hours in the U.S. Midwest. Rainfall mostly favors developing crops while continuing to delay final planting efforts. Hotter temperatures emerging after the rains of the next couple of days will help fields in the south to dry out for planting, Meteorlogix said.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled steady Thursday as market participants struggled to duplicate Wednesday's gains at CBOT in the face of oversupply worries. The benchmark January 2010 soybean contract ended RMB1 higher at RMB3,646 a metric tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange ended sharply lower Thursday on renewed selling pressure as concerns over slowing demand resurfaced, trade participants said. The benchmark September CPO contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR76 lower at MYR2,299 a metric tonne.