June 17, 2009

Global soy supplies will remain tight in coming months, despite a large crop looming in the US this summer, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (June 16).

 

Oil World said soy will remain in very short supply in September to February 2009-10 even if US production increases by 8.0 million tonnes to a record 88.5 million tonnes.

 

It said the likely increase in northern hemisphere crops this summer will be offset by a major reduction in global season opening 2009-10 soy stocks on September 1, 2009, largely caused by smaller soy harvests in early 2009 in Argentina and Brazil.

 

It also said US soy stocks on September 1, 2009, are likely to fall to 3.26 million tonnes from 5.58 million tonnes a year previously.

 

Argentina's September soy stocks are forecast to fall to 17.74 million tonnes from 25.0 million tonnes and Brazil's to 18.60 million tonnes from 22.15 million tonnes.

 

It said that a key price-building factor in coming months will be the outlook for South America's soy crop for harvesting in early 2010.

 

Noticeable supply relief for soy would only start from March 2010 when new crops from Argentina and Brazil start arriving.