June 17, 2008
 
CBOT Soy Outlook on Tuesday: Up 3-5 cents on rebound, floods, Argentina

 

 
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are poised to start Tuesday's day session 3 to 5 cents per bushel firmer in a bounce from sharp losses Monday and amid ongoing concerns about damage from Midwest floods.

 

In overnight electronic trading, July soybeans were unchanged at US$15.34 per bushel. November soybeans jumped 4 cents to US$15.27.

 

There are ideas soybeans are due for a bounce, as a sharp sell-off Monday was "overdone," a CBOT floor analyst said. July soybean prices Monday closed lower and nearer the session low after hitting a fresh 13-week high early on.

 

Fundamentals for the market remain bullish due to excessive wetness in the Midwest and persistent farm tensions in Argentina. Pot-banging protests broke out Monday evening in Buenos Aires and many other Argentine cities as tens of thousands took to the streets to demand an end to a three-month farm conflict that has evolved into the country's biggest crisis in six years.

 

Midwest fields could start to dry out after recent precipitation, as it's likelythe heaviest rains will stay west and south of the main crop areas during the next three to five days, DTN Meteorlogix said in a forecast. However, longer range charts are more uncertain, as there could be some heavier storms in the western Midwest region during the next six to 10 days, the private weather firm said.

 

"The technical trend is clearly up," research marketing firm Allendale said in a note to clients about the soy market. "The Argentine farm strike is growing more serious day by day. Allendale remains bullish soybeans given record low levels of stocks to use and a less than a stellar start to the 2008 planting campaign."

 

There are some ideas that Midwest farmers may switch some acres to soybeans from corn due to flooding of corn fields, said Jerry Gidel, analyst for North American Risk Management Services. Soybeans can be planted later than corn.

 

Still, "the later you put it in the more vulnerable you are to weather issues," Gidel said about the soy crop.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said 84% of the U.S. soybean crop was planted as of Sunday, up from 77% last week but below the five-year average of 94%. It said the crop's good-to-excellent condition was 56%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week and on target with analyst projections of 1- to 3-point drop.

 

The next upside price objective for bulls is to push and close July soybeans above solid technical resistance at the contract high of US$15.95 3/4, a technical analyst said. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid psychological support at US$15.00.

 

First resistance for July soybeans is seen at US$15.50 and then at last week's high of US$15.71 3/4. First support is seen at US$15.00 and then at Monday's low of US$14.92 1/4.
   

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