June 16, 2011

Beef exports concerns weaken US cattle futures

US live cattle futures fell as the market succumbed to the broad selloff in commodities and equities.

Analysts said concern about beef exports were heightened by the stronger dollar. Traders are looking ahead to Friday afternoon's (Jun 17) cattle-on-feed report from the USDA.

Analysts expect federal data to show fewer cattle were added to US feedlots in May compared with a year earlier, following a jump in supplies over much of the last year.

The USDA is expected to report Friday about 1.875 million head of young cattle, known as feeders, were added to feedlots last month, according to the average prediction of 12 analysts and traders.

If correct, the number of cattle added, or placed, in feedlots in May would be 7.5% below the same month a year earlier, and about 2.6% below the five-year average. The decline could signal the start of tightening supplies after feedlot placements out-paced year-earlier levels in 10 of the last 12 months, analysts said.

The cash cattle markets were generally quiet at midweek. Bids in the Texas Panhandle and Kansas were reported from US$1.03-US$1.04 a pound on a live-weight basis, analysts said. Asking prices range from US$1.06 to as high as US$1.08.

In Nebraska, bids from major packers are not well established. Asking prices range from US$1.08-US$1.09 live and US$1.76-US$1.77 dressed. Light sales from US$1.75-US$1.76 dressed to a regional packer were reported following sales of about 1,000 head on Tuesday (Jun 14) at US$1.74-US$1.76.

USDA's midday beef price quote for choice grade carcasses was off US$0.20 per hundred pounds at US$172.61 and select down US$0.36 at US$166.31 on 257 total loads.

The latest HedgersEdge packer margin index was plus US$55.25 a head, compared with US$55.40 the previous day. This is an estimate of packer returns on cattle slaughtered and processed expressed in the form of an index.