June 16, 2009

Production from the 2009-10 wheat crop was downgraded slightly Tuesday (June 16) to 22.0 million tonnes from a March forecast of 22.1 million tonnes, according to the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, or Abare.

If the forecast comes to pass, wheat output this crop year ending March 31, 2010, will still be up 2.8 percent from an actual 21.4 million tonnes production last crop year, according to Abare's quarterly Crop Report.

There is optimism regarding winter crop planting and production because of recent rains across the Australian grains belt, Abare said.

"Rainfall in late May and early June was timely for those winter crops that had already been sown and provided an opportunity for remaining planting intentions to be realized," Abare's Executive Director Phillip Glyde said in a statement.

After annual domestic wheat demand of almost 7 million tonnes is met, Australia usually is a major global supplier of traded wheat. Abare's forecast is broadly in line with industry projections.

Barley production this crop year now is estimated at 7.7 million tonnes, up from a March estimate of 7.3 million tonnes and up from actual output of 6.8 million tonnes in 2008-09, Abare forecast.

Wheat and barley are the major components of an estimate for total production from winter crops this crop year of 34.8 million tonnes, up 5.1 percent from actual output last crop year of 33.1 million tonnes, it said.

Canola production this crop year now is estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, up from a March estimate of 1.4 million tonnes but down from 1.9 million tonnes in 2008-09.

Sorghum production from a crop planted in 2009 and harvested in early 2010 will fall 17 percent on year to 1.9 million tonnes from 2.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, Abare said.