June 15, 2012

2012/13 world corn trade projection up

Global corn trade in 2012/13 (October-September) is forecast to increase by 2.1 million tonnes, reaching a record 103.5 million tonnes this month, while corn prices are expected to be kept competitive for importers due to competition among exporters in 2012/13.

Brazil's large second-crop corn in 2011/12 will mostly be exported in the 2012/13 marketing year, projected to total 11.5 million tonnes. However, Brazil's 2011/12 exports are forecast at 10.0 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.5 million tonnes.

Russia's projected 2012/13 corn   exports are up 1.0 million tonnes this month to 1.5 million, continuing its strong exports in 2011/12, projected at 2.0 million tonnes. Record corn production in Belarus also is expected to boost export prospects, up 0.1 million tons to 0.3 million.

Argentina's 2011/12 corn exports are also expected to increase 0.5 million tonnes to 14.5 million as prompt shipment of newly harvested corn increases the expected shipment before October 1, 2012.

Projected US corn exports for 2012/13 remains at 48.0 million tonnes (1.9 billion bushels for the September-August marketing year). As of May 31, 2012, outstanding sales for the 2012/13 marketing year reached 5.5 million tons, an increase of 43% from a year earlier.

US corn exports for 2011/12 (October-September) are reduced 1.0 million tonnes to 42.5 million tonnes, due to slower pace of recent sales and shipments (down 50 million bushels to 1.65 billion for the September-August marketing year). As of May 31, 2012, outstanding export sales for the current crop year reached 7.7 million tonnes, 2.2 million tonnes lower than a year earlier.

EU 2012/13 corn imports are projected up 1.0 million tonnes this month to 7.0 million tonnes. The EU is expected to import corn for animal feed and use feed less wheat for livestock. EU corn exports are increased 0.2 million tonnes to 2.7 million tonnes based on export licenses.

Indonesia's corn imports are forecast up 0.5 million tons to 2.0 million. With declining corn prices and increasing corn use, Indonesia is expected to maintain stocks by keeping imports at the previous year's level.