June 14, 2004

Low-Carb Diets, Cattle/Beef Bans Top Demand Factors For US Pork

The popularity of low-carbohydrate diets and the affect of bans by most of the country's trading partners on U.S. beef due to a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, or mad-cow disease, discovered in December are the two top factors credited for the sharp boost in pork demand so far this year, according to a loose survey of industry sources at the Pork Expo being held in Iowa from Thursday through Saturday.
 
Steve Meyer, president of Paragon Economics and a consultant to the National Pork Board, listed the increased popularity of low-carbohydrate diets and a perception by others not on these forms of diets that eating more meat is acceptable as the top factor in the increase in demand for pork.
 
Most of the other sources polled agreed with Meyer's assessment. The most popular number two factor was the imposition of bans on U.S. beef by nearly all of the nation's trading partners, followed closely and somewhat connected to the U.S.' ban on imports of cattle from Canada. That ban, which reduces the amount of beef available in the U.S., has now been in place for over a year. It was imposed on May 20, 2003, after Canada announced it had discovered a case of mad-cow disease in a cow in Alberta.
 
The pork industry officials and producer representatives said the combination of the beef and cattle bans led to increased pork exports as those countries that had been purchasing large amounts of U.S. grain-fed beef have been unable to acquire enough beef from other supplying nations. Therefore, most have been purchasing more pork, and a good share of the increase has been U.S. pork.
 
Widespread cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Asia earlier in the year, along with a few cases of lower pathogenic forms of the disease in the U.S. and Canada, severely slowed international poultry trade. That added to the need by some countries to purchase more U.S. pork to provide consumers with the animal protein they desired.
 
Through the first three months of this year, pork exports were up about 30% from a year ago. April export data are expected to be available soon, and industry sources predict another strong showing.
 
Other factors enhancing international pork sales include a weaker U.S. dollar relative to some currencies, making it less costly to purchase U.S. pork, and efforts by the U.S. pork industry, government agencies and the U.S. Meat Export Federation to gain access to additional markets or enhance sales to existing markets.