June 13, 2005
ASA Weekly: China soybean imports to increase; low soy crush in Brazil
China soybean imports to increase 45%
China is expected to import a record 24.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2004-05, a 45 percent increase from the 16.9 million tonnes imported in 2003-04, according to the China National Grain and Oils Information Center (CNOGIC). China is estimated to import about 12 million tonnes of soybeans from US.
Domestic edible oil demand, expected to be about 18 million tonnes in the 2004-05 marketing year, is estimated to outstrip local supply by four to five million tonnes. This demand will be met by crushing imported soybeans.
Domestic soymeal demand, including for feed and other usage, is expected to total 21.68 million tonnes in 2004-05, while estimated total production is 24.36 million tonnes in the same period, according to CNOGIC.
Soybean traders avoid Brazil's Paranagua port
Traders are beginning to avoid Brazil's Paranagua port because of its ban on genetically modified soybeans.
According to a Dow Jones report, two out of every ten loads could be rejected due to contamination.
Other ports such as that of Sao Francisco do Sul are alternatives for trading. However, it is already operating at close to capacity and hence, exporters are still forced to export through Paranagua.
Exporters are concerned about what will happen in 2006, when even more producers are expected to begin planting GMOs, as the Brazilian government has legalized their production earlier this year. The Paranagua port continues to ban GMO soy, despite an April ruling by Brazil's Supreme Court declaring the ban unconstitutional.
Brazil faces low soybean crush
Brazil's soybean crush reached 2.61 million tonnes in April this year, down from the 2.80 million tonnes of April last year, Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) announced in the week of Jun 6.
Low crush margins and the reluctance of farmers to sell beans at low post-harvest prices limited processing, in what is usually a primary month for crushing in Brazil. On the business side, a number of major soy firms, including Archer-Daniels-Midland, Cargill Inc. and Louis Dreyfus, recently closed crushing plants in Brazil due low crush margins.
The April crush produced 2.01 million tonnes of soymeal and 499,000 tonnes of soyoil. Abiove estimates that the 2005-06 crush will reach 29.2 million tonnes, up from 28.9 million tonnes in 2004-05. Total soybean production for 2004-05 is expected to reach 50.8 million tonnes, up slightly from the 50.1 million tonnes produced last year. Exports may reach 19.1 million tonnes in 2005-06, up from 18.95 million tonnes last year.
Asian rust spreading less than expected
Asian soybean rust is spreading at a much lower rate than initially expected. USDA's Asian rust website said last week that aside from four counties in Florida where the fungus was found on common ditch weeds, there is only one county in Georgia where rust is found on soybean.
However, USDA said new computer models indicate that plant pathologists in the Southeast US should continue to monitor their area for the fungus, which can quickly defoliate soybean plants and produce yield losses of 80 to 90 percent.
By mid-June, some new infection may be found on non-soybean plants in Florida, Georgia, Alabama and South Carolina, USDA said.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
5,663 |
4,853 |
3,059 |
896 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
681 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
|
Production |
75,010 |
66,778 |
85,484 |
35,500 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
52,000 |
52,600 |
53,000 |
|
Imports |
127 |
151 |
136 |
400 |
540 |
350 |
1,124 |
350 |
213 |
|
Crush |
43,966 |
41,631 |
44,906 |
24,723 |
24,298 |
26,842 |
27,796 |
29,172 |
30,215 |
|
Exports |
28,441 |
23,946 |
29,937 |
8,910 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
19,987 |
19,571 |
20,888 |
|
Other |
3,540 |
3,146 |
4,171 |
1,533 |
1,552 |
1,652 |
2,893 |
3,150 |
3,200 |
|
Usage |
75,947 |
68,723 |
79,014 |
35,166 |
32,350 |
37,194 |
50,676 |
51,893 |
54,303 |
|
Carryout |
4,853 |
3,059 |
9,665 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
4,976 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
3,096 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
218 |
200 |
191 |
330 |
347 |
250 |
490 |
763 |
469 |
|
Production |
34,666 |
32,953 |
35,674 |
19,486 |
19,050 |
21,253 |
21,950 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
|
Domestic use |
29,380 |
29,257 |
30,345 |
250 |
260 |
270 |
8,750 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
|
Net Exports |
5,304 |
3,705 |
5,293 |
19,219 |
18,887 |
20,583 |
12,927 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
|
Usage |
34,684 |
32,962 |
35,638 |
19,469 |
19,147 |
20,853 |
21,677 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
|
Carryout |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
250 |
650 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
1,070 |
676 |
488 |
105 |
99 |
74 |
150 |
150 |
93 |
|
Production |
8,363 |
7,748 |
8,509 |
4,554 |
4,435 |
4,947 |
5,031 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
|
Domestic use |
7,752 |
7,651 |
7,847 |
130 |
130 |
145 |
2,668 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
|
Net exports |
1,005 |
285 |
587 |
4,430 |
4,330 |
4,676 |
2,363 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
|
Usage |
8,757 |
7,936 |
8,434 |
4,560 |
4,460 |
4,821 |
5,031 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
|
Carryout |
676 |
488 |
563 |
99 |
74 |
200 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 02 Jun 2005 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
0.8 |
327.7 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.2 |
6.6 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
0.8 |
337.1 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
8.6 |
243.9 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
1.5 |
107.2 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
24.8 |
701.4 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
1.5 |
107.2 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
10.4 |
84.7 |
|
Cuba |
Soybeans |
80.6 |
77.9 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
0.8 |
82.9 |
|
Denmark |
Soybeans |
0.4 |
858.8 |
|
Vietnam |
Soymeal |
0.5 |
3.7 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
0.5 |
2431.2 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
10.4 |
29.6 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
80.6 |
2643.2 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
5 |
130.3 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
6.7 |
153.3 |
|
Oman |
Soyoil |
5 |
0.2 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
3.5 |
75.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
0.4 |
1396.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
0.2 |
564.6 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
6.7 |
675.9 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
3.0 |
157.9 |
|
Soybeans |
1,522.3 |
27,800 |
85.9 |
|
Ecuador |
Soymeal |
5.1 |
29.4 |
|
Soymeal |
678.0 |
4,425.9 |
84.8 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
1.5 |
176.5 |
|
Soyoil |
38.2 |
354.0 |
5.7 |
