June 13, 2005
USDA: Wheat, course grains and oilseeds production
WHEAT: Projected U.S. 2005/06 ending stocks of wheat are down 59 million bushels from last month, due to smaller beginning stocks and lower production. Beginning stocks are down 14 million bushels with higher projected food use and exports for 2004/05. Forecast winter wheat production is 45 million bushels less than last month because of lower yields. Projected use is unchanged from last month but is down 131 million bushels from last year. The 2005/06 projected price range is US$2.65 to US$3.15 per bushel, up 10 cents on each end from last month, compared to an estimated $3.39 for 2004/05.
The 2005/06 global wheat outlook has shifted modestly from last month with projected production falling, imports increasing, and stocks declining. Foreign production is down 1.6 million tons due mostly to smaller crops in Australia (down 1.5 million), the EU-25, Argentina, India, and Morocco. These declines are partially offset by larger crops in Russia (up 2 million tons) and Turkey. Projected global imports are up fractionally, mostly due to larger imports by Morocco, Tunisia, and Nigeria. The pattern of global exports has shifted from last month with larger exports projected for Russia and Turkey and smaller exports for Australia, Argentina, and India.
Global consumption rises fractionally due largely to increased wheat feeding in Russia. Global wheat stocks fall with the largest declines in the United States and Australia.
COARSE GRAINS: Except for small increases to U.S. barley exports and oat imports, no other changes are projected for 2004/05 feedgrains relative to last month. Similarly, the outlook for 2005/06 is unchanged from last month for production, use, and prices. The 2005/06 projected price range for corn is US$1.55 to US$1.95, compared with US$2.00 to US$2.10 for 2004/05.
The most noteworthy change in the global outlook for 2004/05 is in Brazil with a 2-million-ton reduction in the corn crop, lower imports, smaller feed use and exports, and a 0.4-million-ton drop in ending stocks. The global outlook for 2005/06 is for decreased coarse grains production, lower use, and a moderate drop in stocks relative to last month. Smaller crops are projected in Ukraine (down 1.5 million tons), Russia (down 1 million), Argentina and Australia (each down 0.5 million), and several other countries.
Global coarse grain use in 2005/06 is down fractionally with the largest declines occurring in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Consumption is up in Egypt, Iran, and Tunisia. Global imports are down slightly as smaller imports by Turkey, Russia,
Indonesia, and Chile are only partially offset by larger imports by Egypt, Morocco, Brazil, and Iran. Exports from Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, and Kazakstan are lower while exports by the EU-25 and South Africa rise. Global ending stocks drop just over 2 million tons with the largest declines occurring in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia. Stocks are up in Iran, Egypt, Tunisia, and several other countries.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 89.2 million tons, unchanged from last month. Soybean production is forecast at 2,895 million bushels, or 78.8 million tons. A projected decrease in 2004/05 soybean ending stocks this month for South America is expected to provide increased U.S. export opportunities.
As a result, 2005/06 U.S. soybean exports are increased 10 million bushels to 1,135 million bushels. Prospects for increased exports and reduced soybean supplies result in a slight decrease in soybean crush from last month. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 255 million bushels, down 25 million bushels from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2005/06 is projected at US$4.95 to US$5.95 per bushel, up 25 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are projected at US$160 to US$190 per short ton, up US$10.00 on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 20.5 to 23.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cents on both ends of the range.
Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is projected at 377.0 million tons, down 4.1 million tons (1 percent) from 2004/05. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 287.8 million tons, up 3.2 million tons from 2004/05.
Global soybean production is projected to increase 3.4 million tons to a record 219.7 million tons. Although U.S. soybean production is expected to decline from last year's record level, a rebound in yields and production in Brazil will push South American soybean production to a record 108 million tons, accounting for just below half of 2005/06 global production. The Brazilian soybean crop is projected at a record 62 million tons, up 17 percent from the drought-reduced 2004/05 crop.
Global production of high-oil content seed is down 5 percent as lower rapeseed production is only partly offset by increased sunflowerseed production. Rapeseed production is projected lower for China, the EU-25, Canada, and India.
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 3 percent in 2005/06, primarily due to gains for soybean meal. Protein meal consumption in China is projected to increase 8 percent, with a 15 percent increase in soybean meal more than offsetting decreased consumption of rapeseed and cottonseed meal.
World soybean trade increases 7 percent to 65.6 million tons, nearly all of which is due to higher imports for China to a record 27.0 million tons.
Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 5 percent for 2005/06 led by gains for China, India, and the EU-25. Global oilseed crush is projected to increase 3 percent, and oilseed stocks are projected to increase 3.5 million tons to a record 58.2 million tons.
Changes for 2004/05 for the U.S. include increased soybean crush and exports and reduced ending stocks. Global soybean ending stocks are also reduced, reflecting the effect of reduced Brazil soybean production for 2003/04. The crop is reduced from 52.6 million tons to 50.5 million tons based on analysis of crush and trade statistics for the marketing year.
For the full USDA report, click here.
