June 12, 2009

 

The yield and quality of 2009-10 Canadian crops could be lower as a result of the poor weather conditions afflicting the Prairie provinces, an official with the Canadian Wheat Board said Thursday (Jun 11).

 

"Cold weather across the Prairies this spring has had a detrimental effect on planting and early crop development in most growing regions," said Bruce Burnett, CWB's director of weather and market analysis.

 

"In addition, soil moisture levels are dangerously low in parts of Alberta and western Saskatchewan where dry conditions have persisted since last fall," he said.

 

In Manitoba, excessive moisture has been a big concern this spring, and some fields haven't yet been planted.

 

Manitoba growers who haven't yet seeded their fields have only another week to 10 days to get their crops sown before the planting window closes for anything but feed grains, Burnett said.

 

Yield projections are down from last year, and the quality of prairie crops could become a concern as harvest dates move back, said Burnett.

 

"Without ideal growing conditions for the remainder of the crop year, below-average production is likely for Western Canada," the CWB said.

 

For the board's crops, specifically, wheat, barley and durum are 10 days to two weeks behind normal development, and the slow start puts the crops at greater risk of damage from early autumn frost.

 

No early frost could be tolerated anywhere this year, Burnett said.

 

On the business side, the CWB expects export levels to be similar to last year, but Burnett pointed out that lower output would cut into exports.

 

Lower quality could also make a difference in sales, he said.

 

Burnett said 2009-10 wheat prices would be pressured by greater global wheat stocks, although he anticipates a return to good premiums for milling wheat due to the tight supplies.

 

That will keep a wider spread between lower- and higher-quality wheat prices, he said.

 

Given lower yield projections for the western Canadian wheat crop, wheat protein levels are expected to be average, Burnett said, citing lower spring fertiliser applications and lower soil nitrogen levels.

 

Looking beyond Canada, Burnett said US wheat growers are facing lower production prospects on account of poor weather, while in Argentina, significant dryness could limit wheat acreage.

 

However, conditions in previously dry Australia are improving with the arrival of much-needed rainfall. Australia is the only major wheat exporter expected to increase production this year, and according to Burnett, that will likely see the country returning to a normal export programme.

 

In North Africa, an important market for western Canadian durum, near-ideal growing conditions have resulted in a very large durum crop, which will lower the region's import demand, the CWB said.