June 12, 2009
USDA raises 2010 wheat carryover, lowers corn and soy
The USDA in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report pulled up that US wheat carryover estimates for 2010, while lowering that of US corn and soy.
US wheat carryover on June 1, 2010, is estimated at 647 million bushels, up 10 million bushels from May estimates but down 22 million bushels or three percent from 669 million bushels in 2009.
US wheat production was projected at 2.016 billion bushels for 2009-10, down 10 million bushels from the May forecast, and down 484 million bushels or 19 percent from 2.5 billion bushels in 2008-09.
Total wheat supply was projected at 2.8 billion bushels for 2009-10, also down 10 million bushels from May, and down 130 million bushels or four percent from 2.93 billion bushels in 2008-09.
US wheat exports for 2009-10 were projected at 900 million bushels, unchanged from May projections but down 110 million bushels or 11 percent from 1.01 billion bushels in 2008-09.
Global 2009-10 wheat output was estimated at 656.06 million tonnes, down from May's projection of 657.62 million tonnes, and down four percent from the previous year's record production of 682.18 million tonnes. Global wheat ending stocks for 2009-10 were projected at 182.65 million tonnes, up from 181.9 million tonnes in May and up eight percent from 168.4 million tonnes the previous year.
US corn carryover on September 1, 2010, was projected at 1.09 billion bushels, down 55 million bushels or five percent from the May estimation and down 32 percent from 1.6 billion bushels in 2009.
Corn production was projected at 11.935 billion bushels, down one percent from the May forecast and down one percent from 12.101 billion bushels in 2008, due to continued planting delay.
Total supply for 2009-10 was projected at 13.55 billion bushels, down 155 million bushels from the current year.
Feed and residual use in 2009-10 were projected at 5.150 billion bushels, down 100 million bushels from the May forecast and down 200 million bushels from 2008-09. Use of corn for ethanol production in 2009-10 was projected at 4.1 billion bushels, unchanged from May and up 350 million bushels from 2008-09.
World corn ending stocks for 2009-10 were projected at 125.46 million tonnes, down from 128.19 million tonnes projected in May and down nine percent from 138.54 million tonnes in 2008-09.
US soy carryover on September 1, 2010, was projected at 210 million bushels, down 20 million bushels from May but up 100 million bushel or 91 percent from 110 million bushels in the current year.
Production was projected at 3.195 billion bushels, unchanged from May and up eight percent from 2.959 billion bushels in 2008. Crushings for 2009-10 were projected at 1.675 billion bushels, unchanged from May and up 25 million bushels from 1.65 billion bushels this year.
Soy exports were projected at a record 1.26 billion bushels, unchanged from May and up from a previous record 1.25 billion bushels this year.
Global soy ending stocks were projected at 51.02 million tonnes, down from 51.88 million tonnes in May but up 22 percent from 41.85 million tonnes in the current year.
