June 12, 2006
ASA Weekly: Brazil to harvest 53.8 million tonnes of soybeans, US record soy stocks likely
Brazil to harvest 53.8 million tonnes of soybeans, Conab says
Brazil's 2005/06 soy crop estimate is 53.8 million tonnes, the National Commodities Supply Corp. (Conab) said last week. Conab's estimates have declined over recent months to reflect dry weather in pockets of Parana and Bahia. Parana is Brazil's no.2 soy producing state. Bahia is the largest producer in the northeast and the sixth largest producer nationwide.
Conab also said heavy rains during the harvest period in the center west have contributed to a lower than expected crop. Asian soybean rust also led to production losses in Mato Grosso, the no.1 producer.
Conab says Mato Grosso would produce 15.9 million tonnes of soybeans, down from 17.7 million tonnes in 2004/05. Conab said Parana will produce 9.4 million tonnes, compared 9.5 million last year, when drought ruined roughly a third of the state's crop. no.3 soy producer Rio Grande do Sul likely will harvest 7.7 million tonnes in 2005/06 soy crop compared just 2.6 million in the 2004/05 crop. Rio Grande do Sul lost more than 75 percent of its soy crop last year because of dry weather in November 2004 through February 2005.
Brazil planted 22.21 million hectares of soybeans in 2005/06, according to Conab. Yields in the center west were put at 2.424 tonnes per hectare. In the South yields are expected to be 2.202 tonnes per hectare. Producers in the southeast should yield 2.384 tonnes/hectare and Northeast yields were put at 2.428 tonnes per hectare.
In related news, Reuters reported last week that Brazil's 2005/06 soybean crop loss due to Asian soybean rust disease is estimated at 2.3 million tonnes. In January, the Brazilian agricultural research agency Embrapa estimated losses in 2004/05 at 4.5 million tonnes.
Another large US crop expected; record stocks likely
US soybean production for 2006/07 is projected at 83.82 tonnes, USDA said in its latest Supply and Demand Report. Output at that level could mean ending stocks at a record 17.8 million tonnes, up 2.3 million tonnes from 2005/06.
USDA also expects a lower soybean crush for 2005/06, reflecting lower-than-expected domestic soybean meal use in recent months as increased soybean meal exports partly offset reduced domestic use. USDA says that soybean ending stocks for 2005/06 likely will be 15.5 million tonnes.
Global oilseed production for 2006/07 is projected at 389.4 million tonnes, down 0.7 million tonnes from 2005/06, according to USDA. Foreign oilseed production is projected at 294.7 million tonnes, up 0.8 million tonnes from 2005/06.
USDA expects global soybean production is projected to be a record 222 million tonnes. Higher yields in Brazil and increased area for Argentina will help push South American production to a record 105 million tonnes, up 3 million from 2005/06.
USDA projects the 2006/07 Brazilian crop at 56 million tonnes, up only slightly from the 55.7 million tonnes produced in 2005/06 as higher yields mostly offset reduced harvested area. Argentina soybean production is projected at a record 41.3 million tonnes due to increased area, USDA said.
World soybean trade is projected to reach a record 71 million tonnes, up 7 percent from 2005/06, according to USDA. China accounts for most of the increase in global trade with imports expected to reach 31.5 million tonnes. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to rise 5 percent led by increases for EU-25, China, and India. Global protein meal consumption is projected by USDA to increase 4 percent in 2006/07 mainly due to gains for soybean meal.
US Asian rust threat passing
A top expert says the threat of a soybean rust outbreak in the Midwest during 2006 is quickly passing, according to a post on USDA's official Asian rust website.
Iowa State University plant pathologist XB Yang said that despite outbreaks in some states this year, further spread has not been observed.
"This is partly due to the drier-than-normal spring season in the southern regions," he said. Yang said crop weather computer models suggest that the airborne fungus is unlikely to spread very fast this spring, when more plentiful rains and more moderate temperatures are most conducive to survival of disease spores.
Yang also told USDA that history suggests that a severe outbreak of rust is unlikely in the Midwest this season, assuming the pathogen spreads in similar fashion to that of other airborne plant diseases, which have affected US crops.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
6,960 |
1,738 |
1,911 |
1,057 |
3,231 |
3,268 |
1,696 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,013 |
83,999 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
40,500 |
51,000 |
53,000 |
57,000 |
|
Imports |
151 |
152 |
108 |
540 |
721 |
800 |
364 |
408 |
425 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
46,160 |
46,811 |
25,072 |
29,000 |
29,300 |
29,172 |
29,399 |
29,329 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
30,011 |
24,494 |
6,790 |
10,000 |
10,450 |
19,256 |
22,798 |
25,280 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
5,093 |
4,396 |
1,505 |
1,575 |
1,645 |
2,899 |
2,783 |
2,912 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
81,264 |
75,701 |
33,367 |
40,575 |
41,395 |
51,327 |
54,980 |
57,521 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
6,960 |
15,366 |
1,911 |
1,057 |
962 |
3,268 |
1,696 |
1,600 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
155 |
347 |
354 |
1,169 |
911 |
753 |
896 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,938 |
36,844 |
19,807 |
22,765 |
23,000 |
22,330 |
22,917 |
23,023 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,448 |
30,617 |
700 |
850 |
900 |
8,099 |
8,735 |
9,250 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,526 |
6,155 |
19,100 |
21,100 |
22,250 |
14,389 |
14,039 |
13,671 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,974 |
36,772 |
19,800 |
21,950 |
23,150 |
22,488 |
22,774 |
22,921 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
155 |
227 |
354 |
1,169 |
1,019 |
753 |
896 |
998 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
771 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
285 |
293 |
128 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,781 |
9,090 |
4,513 |
5,115 |
5,354 |
5,579 |
5,588 |
5,621 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,910 |
8,165 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
3,054 |
3,059 |
3,135 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
588 |
481 |
4,398 |
4,944 |
5,224 |
2,517 |
2,694 |
2,459 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,498 |
8,646 |
4,538 |
5,089 |
5,379 |
5,571 |
5,753 |
5,594 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
771 |
1,215 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
293 |
128 |
155 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 01 June 2006 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
1.40 |
167.30 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
1.00 |
18.60 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
9.10 |
157.80 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
5.50 |
249.60 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
98.20 |
2347.30 |
|
Libya |
Soymeal |
0.50 |
8.00 |
|
Malaysia |
Soybeans |
25.50 |
189.30 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
17.50 |
957.10 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
11.40 |
2805.50 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
6.70 |
92.60 |
|
Morocco |
Soybeans |
0.80 |
201.00 |
|
Philippines |
Soymeal |
1.80 |
372.60 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
0.40 |
91.80 |
|
Jamaica |
Soyoil |
0.30 |
3.20 |
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
7.00 |
1352.00 |
|
Peru |
Soyoil |
0.20 |
0.10 |
|
Algeria |
Soymeal |
7.00 |
13.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
13.50 |
788.70 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
6.80 |
251.20 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
1.50 |
246.80 |
|
Soybeans |
1,733.00 |
21,877.90 |
180.70 |
|
Honduras |
Soymeal |
4.40 |
87.70 |
|
Soymeal |
1,050.20 |
4,239.90 |
72.90 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.20 |
13.20 |
|
Soyoil |
45.00 |
234.10 |
0.50 |
