June 11, 2009
US meat output seen lower on higher feed prices
Total US meat production for 2009 and 2010 is reduced from last month as higher forecast feed prices are expected to cut prospects in the pork and broiler sectors.
Beef production in 2009 is projected lower due to the slower pace of fed-cattle slaughter to date in the second quarter and lighter average carcass weights.
Pork production forecast is raised for 2009, as production is boosted by a higher second quarter slaughter weights. Pork production in 2010 is expected to be lower as higher feed prices and weaker hog prices are projected to dampen growth in animal weights and reduce incentives in rising production. Pork production is also reduced due to a lower forecast of Canadian hog imports during 2010.
The broiler production forecasts for both 2009 and 2010 are lowered from last month as production is dampened by higher feed prices. Turkey production forecasts are raised slightly in the second quarter of 2009, while egg production in 2009 is reduced.
Export forecasts are raised due to strong shipments of beef, pork, and broilers during the first quarter. Pork exports are raised slightly for 2010.
Price forecasts for 2009 are lowered for cattle and hogs but are raised for broilers.
Generally weak red meat demand is expected to pressure livestock prices. The hog price forecast is also lowered for 2010. Broiler prices for both 2009 and 2010 are raised from last month as lower production is expected to support prices. Turkey and egg price forecasts are unchanged.
