June 11, 2009
Thursday: China soy futures settle tad up; trade choppy; cues conflict
China's soy futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled slightly higher Thursday as the market shrugged off a U.S. Department of Agriculture report released overnight.
The benchmark January 2010 soy contract settled 0.2% higher at RMB3,717 a metric tonne.
Market participants weren't surprised by the USDA report, which forecast U.S. 2008-2009 soy ending stocks at 110 million bushels, down 20 million from the 130 million bushels estimated in May.
The reduced forecast fell within analysts' expectations of between 99 million to 130 million bushels.
Factors such as high import costs, lower-than-expected soy imports and concerns about a possible government release of state reserves resulted in a choppy session, as traders sought more conclusive trading guidance.
China's soy imports in May rose 1.1% on year to 3.52 million metric tonnes, the General Administration of Customs said Thursday.
The volume, which was lower than April's 3.71 million tonnes, fell far below market's expectations of above 4 million tonnes.
Analysts said the on-month fall was due to cargoes that were cancelled or delayed because of high U.S. soy prices.
"Recent crushing profits are not good" enough to support a high volume of imports, said Li Lei, analyst with China National Cereals Trade Corp.
Trading volume of all soy contracts rose to 556,516 lots from 458,090 lots Wednesday.
Open interest rose 8,434 lots to 369,216 lots Thursday.
Corn, soymeal, soyoil and palm oil futures all settled lower.
Thursday's settlement prices in yuan a metric tonne for benchmark contracts and volume for all contracts in lots (One lot is equivalent to 10 tonnes):
Contract Settlement Price Change Volume
Soy Jan 2010 3,717 Up 7 556,516
Corn Jan 2010 1,631 Dn 4 95,304
Soymeal Jan 2010 2,974 Dn 8 2,115,242
Palm Oil Jan 2010 6,430 Dn 54 369,342
Soyoil Jan 2010 7,742 Dn 88 773,882
