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1-4 million acres of corn may need to be replanted |
June 11, 2008
Weather forces some US corn growers to replant or switch to soy
The top US corn-producing states are facing significant yield losses following continuous wet weather across the Corn Belt, with some farmers considering replanting or a last-minute switch to soy, experts said Tuesday (June 10, 2008).
The monthly crop report issued earlier in the day by the USDA underscored the scope of the problem, which is exacerbated by a shortage of quality soy seeds in some of the top-producing corn and soy states.
In its June supply/demand report, the USDA estimated the national average US corn yield at 148.9 bushels per acre, five bushels below last month and six bushels below the 1990-2007 trend. USDA does not usually estimate yields so early in the crop year but waits until after its first survey-based report in August.
Bill Nelson, a grain analyst at A.G. Edwards said he expects a lot of replanting and farmers who plant now would be getting substantially lower yields.
The planting problems are coming at a time when corn acreage was expected to be less than last year - estimated in March at 86 million acres - even as demand for corn remains strong. Many believe the USDA will lower the area estimate in its acreage report coming at month's end.
Experts are divided as to the amount of corn replanting that will take place across Iowa, Illinois and Indiana, the three top corn and soy states hardest hit by the rains. Corn farms will have to determine whether to replant their corn fields, fall back on crop insurance or switch to soy.
"The talk was that a million acres of corn needed to be replanted, and we're waiting to get some updates on how that is proceeding," said John Kleist, a grain analyst/broker for Allendale Inc.
A shortage of corn seeds should not be an issue, Kleist said.
Some analysts expect corn replanting to be more prevalent.
"Maybe 4 percent to 5 percent, at least 4 million acres, could be re-planted," said Joel Karlin, a sales manager and commodity sales coordinator for Western Milling.
In its weekly crop progress report released Monday, the USDA said 95 percent of the Illinois corn crop was planted in the week ended Sunday, up from 92 percent last week, but down from the five-year average of 99 percent.
Wet weather was very "significant" in Illinois, said Brad Schwab, Illinois state agricultural statistician. "They'll have to try to replant those areas (affected by wet weather) or just accept the reduction in yields."
The optimal planting window for corn is fairly short in the spring. Up until roughly mid-May, farmers can get prime yields, but planting after that can significantly reduce yields. The later corn is planted, the more likely it will pollinate during the summer, when heat reduces yields. The late-planted corn is also at risk of early frosts.
Schwab said any corn planted now in Illinois is at a disadvantage to corn planted earlier in the season. In the week ended Sunday, only 2.1 days have been suitable for field work in Illinois, according to the USDA weekly crop progress report.
"It's going to put that particular corn behind four weeks," he said. "Total corn production in the state will be affected."
Some farmers will likely plant soy in places where the corn crop has failed to materialize or fall back on crop insurance policies, Schwab said.
Switching to soy, however, will be difficult, Schwab said.
"There is a shortage of available soy seed to plant for this year," said Schwab. "There are some farmers that might have a difficult time finding seeds in general to plant it."
Bob Nielsen, a professor of agronomy at Purdue University, said Indiana farmers will likely switch from corn to soy too.
"The calendar is beginning to get pretty late for even replanting corn," he said.
Wet weather has also continued to affect the corn crop in Missouri and Ohio.
In Missouri, corn planting is 89 percent complete, more than two weeks behind last year and more than three weeks behind normal, according to the USDA weekly crop progress report.
Ohio, similarly dealing with wet weather, saw only 2.4 days suitable for fieldwork during the seven-day period in the week ended Friday. During this period, there was a 57 percent surplus of top soil moisture.
