June 11, 2007

 

World Pork Expo: Circovirus control could add 3-4 percent to US hog supply

 

 

Success in controlling porcine circovirus associated disease through the use of more available vaccines this spring and summer could add approximately 3 percent to 4 percent to slaughter-ready hog supplies by this fall and winter.

 

The more severe form of the disease has impacted the US since late 2005-early 2006. Three vaccines have been available since late spring of 2006. However it's taken pharmaceutical companies some time to verify the drugs' efficacy and gear up production. Now that the vaccines are more plentiful it should lead to fewer death losses.

 

Don Roose, analyst with US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa, said a hog supply increase of 3 percent to 4 percent would pressure prices and that a decline of anywhere from around 7 percent to 20 percent in prices would spark a liquidation phase. How orderly the liquidation is would determine the length and severity of the decline, he said.

 

Representatives of Boehringer Ingelheim Vetmedica, an animal health company, said at the World Pork Expo Friday that in early 2006, it surveyed with 59 swine farms of varying sizes scattered across the country to gather information and test animals. These farms represented a cross section of the nation's hog production sector.

 

The survey confirmed that the effects of circovirus disease are more severe when other disease agents are also present. These coexisting diseases can include porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), salmonella, swine influenza and mycoplasma hyopneumoniae. The tests and surveys on the 59 farms showed that 72 percent of the herds with circovirus symptoms also had PRRS.

 

Following the presentation, John Kolb, senior manager, swine biologicals with BIV, told Dow Jones Newswires that among the 59 surveyed farms, the herds with circovirus but without PRRS showed death losses of around 8 percent to 10 percent. Those infected with both circovirus and PRRS had death losses on average close to 20 percent, he said.

 

Kolb estimated that based on the data collected from the 59 test farms, reducing the losses in those herds to 5 percent would result in a 3 percent to 4 percent increase in the number that would be available for slaughter.

 

On an industry-wide basis, that could amount to about 3 million to 4 million more hogs annually, Kolb said. Market analysts said such an increase in supplies--if it proves true--could weigh heavily on prices unless demand increases significantly.

 

Roose also said liquidation of breeding animals could be even more active if grain prices move higher, raising the cost of production at a time when hog prices are falling.