June 11, 2004

US Feed Grains Outlook

The 2004/05 outlook for U.S. feed grains is unchanged from last month, with no changes to production, use, and prices.  Corn prices in 2004/05 are projected to average $2.55 to $2.95 per bushel, compared with a forecast of $2.45 to $2.55 per bushel for 2003/04.

Except for grain sorghum and barley, 2003/04 feed grain forecasts are unchanged from last month.  Grain sorghum exports are lowered 10 million bushels from last month but feed and residual use is raised 10 million bushels.  The projected price range for 2003/04 grain sorghum is lowered 5 cents on each end to $2.40 to $2.50 per bushel.  Barley imports are raised 5 million bushels.

The global outlook for 2004/05 coarse grains has changed slightly from last month as increased production results in larger ending stocks, especially for corn.  A 1.6-million-ton increase in Ukraine's corn crop accounts for most of the change in foreign coarse grain production.  Global coarse grain trade is little changed from last month.  However, compared to 2003/04, declining coarse grain feed use in the former Soviet Union reflects increased supplies of wheat for feeding.  

For 2003/04, global coarse grain production, trade, and stocks are up from last month.  Global coarse grain production is up just over 1 million tons, imports are increased fractionally, and ending stocks are up nearly 2 million tons.  China's 2003/04 corn crop is up nearly 2 million tons.  Global 2003/04 corn ending stocks are over 2 million tons larger this month but are still 33 million tons below the 2002/03 level.

Source:  WASDE/USDA