June 10, 2010

The wheat harvest in Australia is expected to flourish, after a short but severe dry spell, as the La Nina weather develops.

La Nina, which normally follows an El Nino event, is linked with increased probability of wetter conditions in the western Pacific, particularly in eastern Australia and Asia, and drier conditions in South America.

Historically, about 35-40% of El Nino events are followed by a La Nina within the same year.

La Nina favours Australian farmers, who are sowing their winter crop that includes wheat, before harvests begin in late 2010.

"Any rain before October is hugely beneficial to yields," said Frank Drum, an agri-economist at National Australia Bank.

"The big benefit that we will have this year is the vast majority of the crop went in a little bit earlier, which means the yield loss that we've experienced in the last few years when there's been a shorter growing period, won't be a problem this season."

Forecasts for Australia's 2010/11 wheat crop range from 20.5 million to 22.5 million tonnes but will likely be raised due to soaking rains in the first week of June that replenished drying fields in eastern Australia.