June 10, 2009

A poor soy crop this year coupled with high exports and domestic consumption are likely to make Brazilian soy supplies tight on international markets in coming months, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (June 9).

 

Oil World said the unprecedented pace of soy crushings and exports so far this season and the resulting reduction of stocks will enforce demand rationing later in the season.

 

It forecast Brazil's harvest will fall to 57.4 million tonnes of soy in early 2009, down from 60.0 million tonnes in early 2008.

 

Despite expectations of a lower crop, Brazil's February-May 2009 soy exports shot up to 12.5 million tonnes from 9.6 million tonnes in February-May 2008, it said.

 

Its total February-May 2009 soy consumption rose to 23.6 million tonnes, up 3.3 million tonnes on the year as domestic crushing remained high, it said.

 

Brazil's May soymeal exports were also strong but soyoil exports declined due to increasing domestic requirement for biodiesel production, it said.

 

Oil World said record pace of soy disposals reduced total Brazilian soy stocks to a five-year-low of about 36.5 million tonnes as of June 1, 2009, down 5.0 million tonnes from last year.