June 10, 2004

Key China Corn And Soy Regions Turning Hot, Dry

The key corn- and soy-growing areas of China are forecast to see less than ideal conditions over the next week. Hot temperatures and little to no rain are expected across the North China Plain and Manchuria, causing soil moisture levels to fall below favorable levels in the coming days.

The summer heat has returned to most of China in recent days, as readings in the 80s and 90s F were common from southern to northern China Tuesday. And the forecast calls for this heat to persist into early next week, particularly across the major soy- and corn-producing regions of the North China Plain and western Manchuria.

High temperatures in the 90s and low 100s F are forecast throughout eastern and northeastern China through Monday, while the core of the extreme heat will be focused directly on the North China Plain. However cooler temperatures will return to most locations by Tuesday.

During the next seven days, there will also virtually be no rain in these key growing areas of the North China Plain and Manchuria, which when combined with the excessive heat, will cause soil-moisture levels to drop rather dramatically in most locations over the next week.

Currently soil-moisture levels are favorable across these regions. However, this is expected to quickly change in the coming days.

After a month of May in which rainfall was above normal across most of the North China Plain and Manchuria, the rain has ceased throughout these regions in June so far.

In the province of Heilongjiang, where nearly 35% of China's soy crop is produced, on average only 0.04 of an inch of rain has fallen throughout the first nine days of the month, which is only around 6% of the province's normal rainfall. And the situation is not much different for the other provinces throughout Manchuria and the North China Plain so far in June.

With no additional rain in the forecast across these regions into mid-June, farmers will be hoping the last half of the month will produce above normal rainfall to make up for the extremely dry first half of the month.

The heat and dryness over the next week could take its toll on some of the new corn and soy fields from the North China Plain into Manchuria. However it will be difficult to determine how much this will affect the overall quality and final yield outcome of these crops later in the season.