June 9, 2011

 

CBOT grain rallies on strong demand, supply outlooks

 

 

CBOT grain and soy futures rallied on Wednesday (Jun 8), led by soaring corn prices on strong demand and supportive supply outlooks.

 

Increased ethanol demand drove corn prices higher as producers continued to gobble up high-priced corn to make the biofuel. Ethanol production rose to 915,000 barrels a day last week, up 0.7% from the previous week and 9% from a year earlier.

 

The rise in demand came as concerns intensify about shrinking supplies of corn, which are projected to reach a 15-year low before the next harvest.

 

Grain users are increasingly paying higher prices for corn on the cash market than the futures market as supplies dwindle.

 

The drawdown in ethanol stockpiles despite higher production is a reflection of strong corn demand, said Mike Zuzolo, president Global Commodity Analytics and Consulting in Lafayette, Ind. Corn is the primary input for ethanol production in the US.

 

The strong demand base adds to growing concerns federal forecasters will tighten supply outlooks when the USDA releases its update on supply and demand on Thursday (Jun 9).

 

Analysts expect the government to cut its forecast for corn inventories for the upcoming crop year by 11% to 800 million bushels and its forecast for current-year inventories by 2% to 715 million bushels, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

 

"There is general market sentiment that Thursday's report will be supportive, producing a theme of traders taking a bullish stance heading into the report," said a CBOT analyst.

 

Speculative funds were estimated buyers of 18,000 corn contracts, a large number for daily trading, traders said.

 

Tight supplies, with the 2011 US corn season not off to an optimal start, raised fears among grain users about where they will source corn before the new crop starts rolling in during the late summer.

 

Further support was derived from a swift turnaround in crude oil futures, a feature that helped kick off a broad base rally in commodities, Zuzolo said.

 

These issues briefly pushed the spot July contract up 30 cents, the maximum amount allowed under exchange rules.

 

CBOT July corn climbed 27 1/2 cents or 3.7% to US$7.64/bushel.

 

US wheat futures closed higher on spillover support from a rally in the corn market. Corn's gains lift wheat as market participants expect livestock producers will increasingly feed wheat to animals and cut back on corn feedings. CBOT July wheat rose 14 1/4 cents to US$7.48/bushel while Kansas City Board of Trade July wheat gained 10 1/2 cents to US$8.85, and Minneapolis Grain Exchange July wheat surged 36 3/4 cents to US$10.21 1/2.

 

US soy futures followed corn's lead, with the uncertainty of acreage and production in the face of tight supplies coupled with spillover strength from rebounding crude oil futures underpinning prices, analysts said. CBOT July soy ended up 0.5% at US$14.01 1/2 a bushel.

 

Soymeal futures rallied with soy, garnering additional support from concerns about tightening supplies on reduced transportation capabilities and the possible closure of some soy processing plants due to Missouri River flooding, analysts said. CBOT July soymeal ended up 1.2% at US$372.80/short tonnne, and July soyoil settled up 0.02% at 57.94 cents/pound.