June 9, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Review on Monday: Mixed; July beans, meal set new highs

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended mostly lower Monday, but the nearby July contract carved out new highs for the current uptrend on tight old crop supplies.

 

CBOT July soybeans settled 7 cents higher at US$12.32 1/2 and November soybeans finished 10 cents lower at US$10.51 3/4.

 

July soy meal settled US$5.70 higher at US$401.70 a short tonne. July soyoil finished 33 points lower at 39.40 cents a pound. In pit trades, speculative fund buying was estimated at 3,000 lots in soybeans and 1,000 lots in soymeal. Speculative funds were estimated net sellers of 2,000 lots in soyoil.

 

The technical trend for July soybeans is still rising, with the recurring theme of tightening old crop ending stocks serving as the catalyst to keep sellers from pressing the short side of the market, said John Kleist, broker/analyst with Allendale Inc.

 

Outlooks for tighter ending stock forecasts when U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its June supply and demand report Wednesday added support to the front month as well.

 

The old/new crop bull spread was featured once again, with weather turning better for soybean plantings and development, and expectations of increased soy seedings due to planting delays for corn and spring wheat kept pressure on new crop contracts, Kleist said.

 

The July/November bull spread settled at US$1.80 1/2 a bushel, up from Friday's settlement of US$1.63 3/4 cents.

 

Meanwhile, a firmer U.S. dollar and weakness in equities and crude oil futures supplied a bearish outside influence to apply pressure to the rest of the market, analysts said.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release June supply and demand tables Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). The average of analysts' estimates peg 2008-09 U.S. soybean ending stocks at 114 million bushels, and 2009-10 marketing year ending stocks at 211 million bushels.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast calls for rainfall totals to reach up to 3 inches in Iowa, and more than an inch in Illinois and Indiana this week. At this point in the season - with corn planting almost finished and soybean planting well into its latter stages - rain will be beneficial for crop development, Meteorlogix said.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

Soy product futures ended mixed, with soymeal climbing to nearly 10-month highs, while soyoil stumbled on spreads and weakness in crude oil. Bull spreads in soymeal were strong once again, advancing on tight availability of nearby beans and meal amid solid demand, analysts said.

 

Soyoil futures were pressed by meal/oil spreading, while continuing to consolidate in a range amid a lack of fresh supportive news, ample inventories and weakness in crude oil.

 

July oil share ended at 32.91%. The July soybean crush ended at 84 3/4 cents.