June 8, 2009

The 2009 US corn crop will likely be about 6.5 percent below projected levels because of late planting in key producing states, University of Illinois researchers said late Thursday (June 4).

 

In a report for the University of Illinois's Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, researchers Scott Irwin, Darrel Good and Mike Tannura said under average summer weather conditions, the 2009 crop production could only be 11.3 billion bushels, with a yield of 148.6 bushels per acre. This is compared to the US Department of Agriculture's projected output of 12.09 billion bushels and yield of 155.4 bushels per acre from the May supply/demand report. In 2008, corn production was 12.1 billion bushels, so the projected drop would be 6.6 percent.

 

The three researchers used Illinois, Indiana and Iowa in their study to project US yields under three types of weather scenarios. These three states typically represent 40 percent of US production and the researcher said crop weather forecasts have only been developed for these three states.

 

Excessive rain in the eastern Corn Belt has caused many planting delays, and about 30 percent of the US acreage was planted after the optimal planting date of May 20. "The general lateness of planting and the large discrepancy in planting progress by region raises additional questions about the potential US average corn yield in 2009," the report said.

 

Farmers in Illinois and Indiana were hit hard by the rainy spring weather and were far behind on their corn planting. The report revealed that even if ideal weather situations occur over summer, Indiana and Illinois' corn yields will likely be below average. If inclement weather continues, yields in these states will likely be "well below trend value," the report said.

 

The impact of late planting in both states is "very large (and negative) due to the extreme lateness of planting," it said. However, timely planting in Iowa creates a small positive impact, and the state has a high probability of exceeding its projected and average yields. "Only a poor summer weather scenario would be expected to reduce the state average yield" the report said.

 

The report noted that other states also experienced planting delays, including Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, North Dakota and Ohio. However, minimal planting delays occurred in Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota and South Dakota.

 

The researchers calculated 166.3 bushels for Illinois, 156.8 bushels for Indiana, and 167.9 bushels for Iowa. These calculations are the most likely yield outcomes (in terms of 2009 technology) if the conditions in each year from 1949 through 2008 had an equal probability of occurring in 2009.

 

The researchers said the size of the crop depends on harvested acres and they are using the USDA planting intentions estimate of 85 million acres and a harvested acreage of 76.1 million.

 

A similar report will be issued in July, when actual June precipitation levels, July weather forecasts and crop condition reports will be used to update crop weather models and expected yields.

 

The USDA will release its updated 2009 US corn crop forecast June 10.