June 8, 2007
Argentina's wheat area steady or up on higher prices
Argentina's 2007/08 wheat planting should be in line with, or actually higher, than last year due to a recent surge in wheat prices, according to analysts.
Early forecasts had called for sharply lower wheat planting due to government wheat market intervention, which kept down spot prices, and higher fertiliser costs.
"Planting area will be practically the same as last year...due to the good price of wheat right now," said Panagricola Chief Analyst Ricardo Baccarin.
Others see area actually increasing.
Planted area should be up 4 percent this season (over 2006/07) due to favourable soil moisture conditions and strong prices for wheat, said AgriPac Consultores Analyst Pablo Adreani.
Farmers are enthusiastic about the possibilities of wheat this year despite government manipulation of prices with last year's wheat crop, Adreani said.
In March, Argentina suspended the wheat export registry in an effort to ensure domestic supply and keep down local bread and pasta prices.
Earlier this year, the government announced that domestic wheat millers would receive subsidies to compensate for rising input costs. The programme was designed to give farmers the international value for wheat while keeping down domestic food costs. However, farmers complain that that the government has been slow to actually make payments.
Wheat planting is in full swing right now, with 15.3 percent of the 2007/08 wheat planted as of June 1, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.
The exchange sees 5.4 million hectares of wheat being planted this year, a 3 percent decrease from 2006/07. The Agriculture Secretariat has forecast 5.2 million hectares, a 5.5 percent drop from last year.
Estimates for Argentina's 2007/08 wheat production in hectares (Ha) or tonnes (MT).
|
|
Wheat |
|
Agriculture Secretariat |
5.2 million Ha |
|
USDA |
12.8 million MT |
|
B.A. Cereals Exchange |
5.4 million Ha |
Estimates for Argentina's 2006/07 wheat production in millions of tonnes:
|
|
Wheat |
|
Agriculture Secretariat |
14 million |
|
USDA |
14.2 million |
|
B.A. Cereals Exchange |
13.8 million |
Argentina's historical production estimates in tonnes (MT), according to the Agriculture Secretariat:
|
Marketing Year |
Wheat |
|
2005/06 |
12.6 million |
|
2004/05 |
16 million |
|
2003/04 |
14.6 million |
|
2002/03 |
12.3 million |
|
2001/02 |
15.3 million |
