June 8, 2004

 

 

Brazil 2003/04 Soybean Crop Estimated At 50.9 Million Tons/t

 

Brazil's 2003/04 soybean crop should total 50.9 million tons, according to an estimate out Monday from the Celeres agricultural wing of the MPrado consulting firm.

 

The completion of 2003/04 soybean crop harvesting occurred around three weeks ago.

 

As recently as May Celeres was forecasting the 2003/04 soy crop at 52.7 million tons.

 

The latest estimate represents a reduction of 3% on the 52.5 million tons of 2002/03.

 

The 2003/04 figure is based on a 21.2 million hectare area planted with the crop at an average nationwide yield of 2,394 kilograms per hectare. The yield represents a 3.5% reduction on the May forecast and one of 15% on the 2002/03 average.

 

Celeres also says that the 2003/04 yield was the lowest seen since the 2,366 kg/ha of 1998/99.

 

The main losses to the 2003/04 soybean crop occurred in Rio Grande do Sul, Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana.

 

The 50.9 million ton 2003/04 soybean crop means that crushing and export forecasts have been changed.

 

C¨¦leres now forecasts soybean crushing at 29.3 million tons and export at 20.3 million tons. In May these forecasts were 29.65m/t and 22m/t respectively.

 

Celeres also announced that two third of production has already been sold, largely in forward deals.

 

To Friday (June 4) 66% of the soybean crop had been sold compared with 58% at the same date last year and a 68% five-year average.

 

To Friday the Center-West had sold 77% of the crop, with Mato Grosso selling 80%. In the South 52% of the crop had been sold to Friday, at 53% in Parana and 51% in Rio Grande do Sul.