June 8, 2004

 

 

Outlook For New Australian Wheat Crop Improves

 

The outlook for the new Australian wheat crop has improved since March, with an official production forecast rising to 23.25 million metric tons from a March estimate of 21.90 million tons, according to an official forecast issued Tuesday.

 

If achieved, wheat production this crop year will be down from actual output of a record 24.92 million tons last crop year ended March 31, 2004, in part reflecting a dry start to plantings in southern growing areas.

 

Agriculture Minister Warren Truss has welcomed the improved forecast but warned that harvest, mostly in November and December, is many months away.

 

"The Abare forecast is encouraging but the crop is a long way from the silo yet and in many areas, it remains to be planted, so the predictions have to be treated with a degree of caution," Truss told Dow Jones Newswires through a spokesman.

 

The forecasts for wheat, barley, canola and other winter crops are contained in a occasional Crop Report issued by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, or Abare.

 

Australia usually is a major global supplier of these winter crops, after domestic needs are met.

 

If Abare's forecast for the new wheat crop is achieved, monopoly bulk wheat exporter AWB Ltd. likely will have about 17 million tons available for export.

 

Wheat is the major winter crop produced in Australia, accounting for almost 60% of forecast total winter crop production of 36.99 million tons this crop year.

 

New crop barley production is forecast at 7.79 million tons, down from an actual 8.53 million tons last crop year, while canola output this crop year is forecast at 1.50 million tons, down from an actual 1.62 million tons last crop year.

 

Northern New South Wales Plantings Begin Well

 

Abare said aggregate autumn rains across winter cropping areas were generally below long-term averages, except in northern areas of New South Wales and southern Queensland states.

 

A major increase in wheat plantings is reported in the state's northwest.

 

Below average rainfall and low soil moisture profiles across much of southern Australia has delayed planting of winter crops, with sowing of cereals, such as wheat and barley, behind schedule, it said.

 

The delayed autumn break has influenced the mix of crops with lower-than- expected plantings in southern areas of canola, which usually is planted first, it said.

 

With some rainfall in late May over much of Australia's winter cropping areas, and assuming further sowing rains in coming weeks, "producers are expected to plant cereal crops before the end of June," Abare said.

 

"In southern areas, diminished opportunities to plant canola are likely to result in an increased area sown to cereals," it said.

 

These recent rains will help improve the potential of emerging crops, it said, especially those that were dry sown into soils containing little or no subsoil moisture.

 

Abare now forecasts farmers will plant 12.49 million hectares to new crop wheat, up from March projection of 12.19 million hectares.

 

The national wheat crop will once again be underpinned by production in Western Australia and New South Wales, which together account for a little over two-thirds of the new crop forecast.

 

Wheat production in Western Australia will fall to 8.73 million tons this crop year from a record 10.65 million tons last crop year, Abare said.

 

It forecast a small reduction in the area planted to wheat, reflecting a weaker start to the cropping season in many parts of the state.

 

"Given the late planting and low subsoil moisture profile in many regions, yields are forecast to be around average to below average," leading to lower overall production, it said.

 

Some further rains in the past 24 hours in Western Australia, according to the government's Bureau of Meteorology, likely will further support crop growth in the state.

 

In New South Wales, Abare projects new crop wheat production at 7.07 million tons, up from an actual 6.05 million tons in the last crop year.

 

This forecast increase chiefly reflects the impact of good planting rains in northern areas of the state, while southern and central areas suffered low subsoil moisture levels, which could reduce yield potential, it said.

 

This situation likely has changed after heavy rains at times in these areas since the Crop Report was finalized on June 2.

 

Other areas where sowing has been delayed by a lack of rain include western areas of Victoria state, central Queensland and most of South Australia, it said.