June 7, 2010

US winter-wheat production probably will fall 2.8% this year, a smaller drop than the government forecast last month, according to Informa Economics Inc.

The crop will total 1.481 billion bushels, compared with 1.523 billion last year, Memphis, Tennessee-based Informa said in a report. Last month, the private forecaster predicted output of 1.466 billion bushels and the USDA projected 1.458 billion.

The harvest of hard-red winter wheat will rise 7.1 % to 984 million bushels, from 919 million last year, Informa said. That is up from last month's forecasts of 964 million by the company and 960 million by the USDA.

Production of soft-red winter wheat will fall 30% to 283 million bushels from 404 million last year, Informa said. The company forecast 295 million in May. Farmers will harvest 214 million bushels of soft-white wheat, compared with 200 million last year, the company said.

The USDA predicts world reserves will rise to the highest in nine years before the start of the Northern Hemisphere harvests in 2011.

The department will release its second production forecast for this year's crop on June 10 in Washington. Winter wheat is the most common variety of the grain in the US, accounting for 69% of last year's harvest.