June 6, 2012

US soy exports up nearly 40% in 2012-13

In order to compensate for the shortfall in the South American crop which has been hit by drought, US soy exports will increase by nearly 40% from September 2012-February 2013, German-based analyst Oil World said on Tuesday (June 5).

"Insufficient South American export supplies of soy, soymeal and oil will shift world demand to US origin in September 2012-February 2013," Oil World said.

"Such a huge shift has not been experienced before."

Oil World said that US soy exports will reach 33.5 million tonnes in the first half of the US crop season, up 9.3 million tonnes or 39% from a year earlier. Total world exports of soy in the same period will reach 43.4 million tonnes, Oil World said.

It said that exports from leading South American producers -- Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay - are expected to decline by nine million tonnes in the same period.

"With our current US soy crop estimate of 88.7 million tonnes, we consider it necessary that total US soy stocks will be reduced to a multiyear low of only 31.5 million tonnes as of end of February 2013," Oil World said.

"This is an unusually low inventory and sharply down from 38.7 million tonnes from a year earlier."

Oil World said that US crushings are likely to be boosted in response to reduced processing in South America and that it will probably reach 25.5 million tonnes in the period from September 2012-February 2013.

"This would be up 2.1 million tonnes from a year ago," Oil World said.

But combined soy crushing of the four major exporting countries - US, Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay - would still decline to 56.2 million tonnes in the period from September 2012-February 2013 compared to 59.5 million tonnes a year earlier.