June 6, 2006

 

Brazil's soy registrations at 73.8 percent for 2006/07 crop

 

 

Registrations of Brazil's soybean exports for the market year 2006/07 hit 73.8 percent of the estimated 56.4-million-tonnes harvest as of May 31, said the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) on Wednesday (May 31). This is up from the 60.1 percent registered two weeks ago and higher than the 60.3 percent registered by a year ago for the 2005/06 crop of 53 million tonnes.

 

By comparison, Brazil had already committed 92 percent of its roughly 50 million-tonnes soy crop to world markets at this time in the 2004/05 season.

 

The total export registration estimate for May 31 comes out to 18.6 million tonnes, compared to roughly 15 million tonnes in Abiove's previous report dated May 15. By the same time last season, Brazil registered nearly 13.5 million tonnes of soybeans for export.

 

For the first time this year, Wednesday's numbers show an increase in soybean registrations from the roughly 17.5 million tonnes seen at the same point in the 2004/05 market year as international demand from Asia continues to help the Brazilian soybean market.

 

Abiove estimates a market year 2006/07 soy export total of 25.2 million tonnes, beating last year's record of 22.4 million tonnes.

 

Soymeal registrations for the market year 2006/07 are at 52.1 million tonnes. Just under 7 million tonnes of soymeal have been registered for export compared to the 5.59 million tonnes of soymeal registered in Abiove's May 15 report. In the 2005/06 period, however, 7 million tonnes of soymeal were registered for exports at this time.

 

In general, Brazilian soy farmers have been shipping abroad fewer soybean derivatives in recent years, as high taxes, logistical problems and a strong local currency have caused Brazilian soymeal to lose market share to Argentina.

 

Brazil should export 12.9 million tonnes of soymeal in market year 2006/07.

 

Soyoil export registrations by May 31 rose to 49 percent with 1.1 million tonnes compared to 1 million tonnes in their previous report, but still lower than the 1.3 million tonnes registered by the same period a year ago.

 

Export estimates for soyoil for market year 2006/07 are 2.25 million tonnes, lower than the 2.6 million tonnes expected for market year 2005/06.

 

Brazil's soy crush estimate for market year 2006/07 is 28.5 million tonnes. Abiove lowered its previous crush estimate of 28.9 million tonnes last month. If the estimate proves correct, it would be the lowest crush total since market year 2003/04, when 27.7 million tonnes of soybean were crushed into meal and oil.

 

Brazil is the world's no. 2 soybean producer after the US.