June 4, 2012

India's wheat crop likely down 8% by 2035

Northern India's wheat productivity is likely to go down 8% by 2035 due to climate change which may have a severely detrimental impact.

Temperature in the state is expected to go up by over 1.5 degree Celsius, than that is being experienced in summers at present.

Research by scientists in Punjab Agriculture University on the impact of climate change on not just crops, but also on forest plantations, have got the state forest department worried. For, over 16,000 kilometres of area across six districts, in the Kandi belt of the state, is expected to be grossly impacted by rising temperatures.

"About two-thirds of the forest in the state is vulnerable to climate change as declared by the Forest Survey of India and Indian Institute of Science," said Kuldip Kumar, chief conservator of forests.

"As per the research work done on the impact of climate change in Punjab, wheat production will come down by 1% in the next 10 years. Growth of plants will get stunted and crop will mature before time, which will have a staggering impact on the productivity of the crop," said S B Roy, former professor at IIT and currently serving the Indian Institute of Bio Social Research and Development, Kolkata.

What has compounded the concern is the fact that the area defined vulnerable to climate change by the Forest Survey of India covers 67% forest area in the state. As per watershed atlas of ministry of agriculture, Kandi area contains two water resource regions, four river basins including Ravi, Beas, Sutlej and Ghaggar and four catchments.

"There are 5,687 villages falling in the vulnerable landscape which are already backward in socio-economic terms. An important source of income for inhabitants of Shiwalik tract is timber and climate change will have a far higher adverse impact here than anywhere," said P A Bhojwaid, director, Forest Research Institute, Dehradun.

Keeping in view the serious ramifications in Kandi area due to climate change, the state government had selected the area for national programme of Green India Mission, which is one of the eight missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC).

"Departing from the earlier practice of raising the plantations, the Green India Mission for the first time emphasises the restoration of ecosystems such as grasslands and pastures, wetlands and degraded forests. There is a special emphasis on improving the quality and density of forests, restoration of biodiversity and, in this way, the enhancement of ecosystem services," said H S Gujral, chief conservator of forests, Punjab.