June 4, 2007

  

18,000 pigs in China killed by Blue Ear Disease

 

 

Blue ear disease has infected 45,000 pigs and killed 18,000 of them in China during the first five months of this year, the Ministry of Agriculture said Monday.

 

The country has developed an effective vaccine that is already being used, the ministry said in a statement published on its Web site.

 

Although official figures put the number at 18,000, various media have claimed that the actual number would be much higher - probably reaching into millions.

 

However, the ministry did say that blue ear disease was among the factors resulting in a recent surge in domestic pork prices.

 

Average wholesale price of pork in 36 mid-to-large cities was up 43 percent on-year due to the shortage, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce.

 

Analysts also dismissed the Department's claims that the vaccine would be effective as it has yet to prove itself in the field.

 

Meanwhile, the recovery of the pork sector and by inference, the feedmeal sector, would be slow as farmers stay on the sidelines.

 

The agriculture ministry said it is working to prevent the disease spreading during its current season.

 

Although the diseases have caused a fall in demand for feedmeal, high pork prices would help the recovery of pig raising, said Sun Jianbao, an analyst at China Cereals & Oils Business Net.

 

Analysts said pork prices will likely peak in September, when corn prices are usually at their highest level of the year, as farmers have sold all their crops.

 

The harvesting season for corn is October and November in China.

 

Corn cash prices may still rise by up to RMB 100/tonne (US$13.07) in the next two to three months on the recovery of the feedmeal sector, if the weather is favorable for new corn growing, said Kang Zhichao, a trader at Nanhua Futures Co.

 

If there's bad weather however, the prices could double to RMB 200/tonne (US$26.07).