June 3, 2009

US is likely to harvest 88.5 million tonnes or 3.25 billion bushels of soy in 2009-10 (Sept/Aug), up from 80.54 million in 2008-09 as farmers expand plantings, analysts Oil World said on Tuesday (Jun 2).

 

The analysts said US spring plantings were delayed in May for corn, soy and other crops, and is expecting some acreage switch from corn to soy.

 

It forecasts that US farmers will plant 31.6 million hectares of soy this year, up 1.0 million hectares from last year and 800,000 hectares higher than estimated in the US official March plantings indications survey.

 

It forecasts a sharp rise in US 2009-10 soy crushings to 48.70 million tonnes from 45.35 million in 2008-09, but expects only a modest rise in 2009-10 soy exports to 34.70 million tonnes from 34.20 million.

 

Oil World also said US soy crushings and exports will be concentrated between September 2009 to February 2010 due to poor South American soy harvest widely expected in early 2009, especially in Argentina.

 

However, it said that a likely recovery in South American soy harvests in 2009-10 would increase export competition.

 

It forecast that US soy stocks will rise to 5.70 million tonnes in end-August 2010 from the 3.60 million tonnes expected in August 2009, stressed this was still a tight level.