Corn exports are expected to be at 1.95 billion bushels for the current marketing year that runs through August 2010, according to USDA.

That projection is 92 million bushels larger than exports during the previous marketing year. The projection is about equal to average exports of the previous 10 years that have ranged from 1.588 billion bushels in 2002-03 to 2.437 billion bushels in 2007-08.

''With one quarter remaining in the marketing year, there is mixed evidence of the likelihood of reaching the USDA's export projection,'' says University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good.

The US Census Bureau provides the official export estimates on a monthly basis, with about a 6-week lag. Current US Census Bureau estimates for the 2009-10 corn marketing year are available through March 2010. The USDA provides weekly estimates of exports and export sales. From September 2009 through March 2010, cumulative US Census Bureau export estimates exceeded cumulative USDA export inspection estimates by 69 million bushels.

''If that margin persisted through May 27, cumulative exports would have totalled 1.401 billion bushels. To reach the USDA projection of 1.95 billion for the year, exports during the final 13.7 weeks of the marketing year need to average about 40 million bushels per week,'' Good says.

While export inspections underestimate actual exports, inspections have exceeded 40 million bushels in only nine weeks during the first 38.4 weeks of the marketing year and have averaged only 34.7 million bushels per week during that period.

Inspections have been relatively large since mid-February, averaging just over 37.8 million per week. However, inspections averaged 46.1 million per week for the two weeks ending May 27.